13 days out to the election. Weve got lots in this hour. Wendy schiller of Brown University will join us on the changing political landscape. There is Market Movement today. We will talk equities in a moment with james bevan. I love his work on a more longterm perspective. Lets go shortterm. Where in the bond market argue focused . Jonathan long end, of course. Front end anchored, a bit of a snooze. And youre starting to break out a bit over the last 24 hours, just north of 80 basis points. Just around 95 was the intraday high in june. We have not reclaimed that level. Whenever we see a price move like this, it is a bit more fuel for the reflation narrative. It is price first, narrative second. Tom i saw just a little bit breaking out to higher inflation. What is the significance of the vanilla spread, the difference between the 10 year and the twoyear yield, back to march of 2018 . Jonathan jonathan steeper, and the five year versus the 30 year, also steeper. I think weve got to get m
Jon ferro has been calling it. Guy we are monitoring the stimulus story beat by beat. Nancy pelosi will be talking around 14 minutes. We are going to get a sense at that point whether or not we are making progress. That could certainly be market moving. We will bring you those headlines as soon as we get them. Lisa the white house has been pushing for a largescale deal again, off again, on again. Wants alosi says she more comprehensive fiscal bailout as a result of the pandemic. Emily wilkins joins us now with the latest. Emily if anyone is confused about where things are with the stimulus deal, you are not alone area Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell said yesterday he was feeling some with lash some whiplash with all of the backandforth we have seen this week. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is Still Holding out after months for a larger stimulus package. She and the white house negotiator, treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin, spoke by phone yesterday. It seems like there still could be
President trump in florida, i noticed about an hour ago. He will leave in the early evening. I believe Vice President biden scheduled for ohio. What is so odd is the relative invisibility of the leader in the race, Vice President biden. This was a trump weekend they trump discourse. Jonathan the president has been in the spotlight for all of the wrong reasons the last couple of weeks. I think the former Vice President wants to leave him there. Not just orlando later this evening. I believe pennsylvania tomorrow, iowa wednesday, and thursday in north carolina. The numbers at a national level, and it some of these states, particularly iowa, where he crushed Hillary Clinton four years ago, much tighter this time around. Tom the polls are really showing the challenges there. What is important for me, for our international audience, it is surprising how the voting rules and the voting process devolves to the state level and even to the city and county level. Very different from the united k
Internet stocks popping higher, even with netflix in the mix. The at the david at same time when the equity markets do not give us a clear picture, we look at things like debt, the 10 year yield on u. S. Government debt, and also the dollar. Is there some thought that stimulus may, in is that affecting the dollar and debt . Theail absolutely, that is bigger driver on the day. When we take a look at the 10 year yield bond, we have bonds lower, that tells us yields are climbing higher. We have the 10 year yield starting to pop out of the middle of a range. Should that continue, and it seems likely to press up closer to 1 , and of course that is coming on the narrative stimulus is around the corner at some point. Then the idea you will have yields continuing to climb. At what point does that spook investors for a variety of reasons . Earlier today it is 1. 5 . In june when the 10 year yield 1 ,allowed was around that is when stocks could be wobbly, selected be what we are seeing today on
5, 6, seven major stories, are driving us forward. Simply an open question with all that is going on, what has your eye this morning . Jonathan the italian bond market. I know that feels a bit off the beaten road, but right now rallying aggressively over the less capital weeks. Look at the spread of btps to german debt at the moment. It is about 20 basis point. That was about 280 earlier in the year. That is one to watch in the debt markets. Tom bond price up, yield down. What is the why . Is it a flight to quality . Jonathan reduced redenomination risk, i am not sure we are completely there yet where we can say that this market now trades like a proper sovereign. What that means, we used to question how long some of these countries would play into the euro zone. The risk of redenomination, moving out of the euro and being repriced in a different currency. The fiscal backstop of a couple of months ago, even though it has not been fully implement it, i think that gave people some confid