Ofto see geoffrey yu there bny mellon in our opening. With the new slow out of washington, how to get ready for ferro, do you think the secretary of treasury will be watching mr. Powells press conference . Jonathan i hope they speak before the press conference. These two need to get on the same side. It is not good to wake up ever to see the chairman of the Federal Reserve and treasury secretary on different pages on an Emergency Program that, lets be clear, has really helped keep financial conditions loose at a really tough time for the u. S. Economy. I am surprised, maybe even shocked, that the market is where it is this morning based on the spat between those two individuals. Tom there are distractions in washington, but maybe it was beneath the radar off of president trumps efforts to tolection 2020 lisa move election 2020. It devolves to a market that looks like the fourth week of is taking myferro vacation days. Lisa how do you price the future with a present that is very much dy
I do want to talk about the resiliency of american corporations to adapt and adjust , whether it was Johnson Johnson a bit ago, the seven could jillian dollars the seven gajillion dollars at blackrock. Thenow the story, executable excellence we are seeing in the statistics. It is going to be fascinating. Jonathan it might be too early to say the gloom of pandemic is behind us, but it might be time that we talk about the provision build of these banks. The number comes in at 611 million. I think that is the positive out of this Earnings Report this morning. Talkednali basak really about that being a key statistic, and it is better than good. I go back 10 minutes ago, the idea that they suspended share buybacks, and yet theyve got enormous Free Cash Flow available for Dividend Growth and maybe some share repurchase. Granted, youve got the mystery of what commercial real estate is going to do. Jonathan i imagine their Capital Return Program will change drastically in about 12 months time.
5, 6, seven major stories, are driving us forward. Simply an open question with all that is going on, what has your eye this morning . Jonathan the italian bond market. I know that feels a bit off the beaten road, but right now rallying aggressively over the less capital weeks. Look at the spread of btps to german debt at the moment. It is about 20 basis point. That was about 280 earlier in the year. That is one to watch in the debt markets. Tom bond price up, yield down. What is the why . Is it a flight to quality . Jonathan reduced redenomination risk, i am not sure we are completely there yet where we can say that this market now trades like a proper sovereign. What that means, we used to question how long some of these countries would play into the euro zone. The risk of redenomination, moving out of the euro and being repriced in a different currency. The fiscal backstop of a couple of months ago, even though it has not been fully implement it, i think that gave people some confid
Markets moved to the downside, Morgan Stanley at the Economic Team out with a note in the last few hours, talking about some of the risks. Markets as youhe start to see this payrolls turned back negative. What that means for the Downside Risk for the market at valuations that are by some measures full at this point. Romaine lets bring jim polson back. Upay, you see the nasdaq 100 0. 8 . Snp down half a percent. Down 2 on the day. Smaller, midcap cyclical names, that has kind of disappeared. That some of these names could come back anytime soon . Jim i think that whenever we have jitters about the virus reemerging, that creating a slowdown in economic reopenings , we will get the kind of today we got today where the market itself, great leadership by what is perceived as defensive investments, which is the new communications, consumer discretionary, that has growth outside of reliance solely on the economy. But i think we are in a new economic recovery and new bull market. Ultimately, i
Handle on the vix. Towas really extraordinary just sit there and observe the turn in the markets yesterday. It continues this morning. Surprise, in an election year, we are thinking about infrastructure. A 1 trillion infrastructure on deck, according to reporting in washington, d. C. This shouldnt shock anyone. Tom not at all. As i said earlier, everybody tunes into you. They dont tune into me earlier. I get that. But to the people out there, it is a bridge to nowhere in kentucky, a bridge to nowhere in San Francisco for speaker pelosi. I guess the president can put a bridge to nowhere in florida. It is all about politics. You just say to yourself, why cant this happen . Why cant this get done . I dont have a straight answer. Jonathan i dont have a straight answer either. They are not here for me, tom. They are here for lisa. Lets talk about the data. Retail sales on deck. A series of upside surprises in the United States weve had in the Economic Data for much of the last month. Lisa y