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Short-term rates traders are girding for a bumpy road ahead, as the U.S. debt ceiling looks poised to return on Aug. 1 while Congress so far has no clear plan to increase it meaning federal government borrowing could soon get tricky.
Toward the top of the list of worries among traders: the U.S. is likely to reduce issuance of bills which are already in short supply as investors scramble for places to park cash because the Treasury Department needs to dramatically reduce its cash balance this month.
The debt ceiling was suspended for two years in July 2019. If Congress doesn’t increase that limit on U.S. borrowing or suspend it again, then Treasury will be forced to deploy extraordinary measures to keep paying its debts. Politicians have in the past decade used threats of not raising the debt ceiling to get concessions on other matters.