Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a wave of COVID-19 infections and lockdowns in mainland China, relentless inflation, and tightening financial conditions have disrupted production and stifled demand, causing the global economy to stall. Led by services, growth is expected to return at a moderate 2.5% annual pace in the final two quarters of 2022, with the .
Our macroeconomic forecasting team assesses how the war and latest survey data have altered the economic outlook, policymaking and recession risks. Read more here.
Our Materials Price Index (MPI) decreased 1.4% last week, with half of the index’s ten sub-components falling. Markets have been growing increasingly nervous about growth prospects with widening Chinese COVID-19 lockdowns and higher interest rates in recent weeks. This sparked the second consecutive weekly decline in commodity prices with prices now collectively 10.4% lower than .
Our Materials Price Index (MPI) increased 2.2% last week, with six of the index’s ten sub-components rising. Markets had been more settled in recent weeks, but the latest numbers demonstrate strong pricing pressure still exists and commodity prices remain near their all-time high established in early March. Rising energy prices were the main reason for .
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape with economic consequences. Four weeks into the war, Russia continues its bombardment of cities, encountering determined Ukrainian resistance. While the outcome is highly uncertain, a lengthy political impasse appears likely. Economic damage to both countries will be substantial. Through sanctions, trade policies, and .