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Global Economy Passes Pre-COVID GDP as Business Investments Pick Up; Risks Remain
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Global Economy Passes Pre-COVID GDP as Business Investments Pick Up; Risks Remain
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Surging Commodity Prices Over The Past Year Will Help Drive US Consumer Price Inflation To Highest Rate In Nearly A Decade, John Mothersole, Pricing And Purchasing Research Director, IHS Markit Date
29/04/2021
After a year of strong commodity price increases, inflation pressures are now building downstream in supply chains. The IHS Markit Materials Price Index (MPI) has more than doubled since March of 2020, with commodity prices collectively now at their highest level since early 2014. We can point to several factors to explain the rise: strong mainland Chinese demand, a shift in consumer consumption toward goods, a weaker US dollar, generous government stimulus, vaccine optimism and pandemic caused disruptions in supply chains.
USD/CAD showed some volatility in mid-week trading but was little changed over the course of the week.
There are three economic releases in the upcoming week, including GDP.
Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
In Canada, Housing Starts exploded with a gain of 335 thousand in March, up from 246 thousand. CPI remained steady at 0.5%, just shy of the forecast of 0.6%. The Bank of Canada tapered its QE from C$4 billion to C$3 billion, becoming the first G-7 bank to tighten policy since the Covid-19 pandemic began.
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In the US, unemployment claims dropped for a second straight week to 547 thousand, down from 576 thousand beforehand. Manufacturing PMI in March improved to 60.6, up from 59.0. A reading above the 50-neutral level points to growth.
Surging Commodity Prices And Crisis In Supply Chains To Lead To Burst In Goods Prices This Summer - John Mothersole, Pricing And Purchasing Research Director, IHS Markit Date
15/03/2021
Commodity prices continue to move higher, although late February and early March have seen periods of volatility with prices pulling back in some markets. This recent choppiness cannot be described as a correction and, indeed, our IHS Markit Materials Price Index (MPI) has continued to record a collective price increase in the commodity complex across the four weeks to March 5. As marked by the MPI, (which does include measures of ocean-going shipping rates and DRAM prices), commodity prices are now up 68% from a year ago.
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