Brent now at the highest levels of the year. Gold, copper, et cetera, and the stocks within that complex have all just ripped. And since february 11th, most shorted stocks in the s p 500 up 20 . This is a massive Short Covering rally. Theres two questions you want to answer for yourself. Is the bottom in . The answer to that right now, only is in will there be an exogenous event that takes you back to the lows. Not an economic event. Recession pulling off the table. Secondarily the question, where do we go from here . Higher. We go higher from here. 37. 50 in oil. Higher from here. Higher in all the names that are tied to the goldilocks formation. Youre shaking your head no. Im on the other side of this. I agree that its a short squeeze going on. But ive got to say that we havent solved any of the fundamental issues in the commodity space, which is simply oversupply. Who cares . Eventually, everybody cares, joe. Nope, wrong. Its about performance, its about Short Covering, the future s
Though she is heartened by the strong employment numbers on friday. And expects over time inflation to be back to 2 target, but shes in no particular hurry. The real risk because of china and slack in the economy, the real risk for inflation is to the downside. Stan fisher not speaking directly on current monetary policy. But does he drop this one element here saying he has seen possibly the first signs of an increase in inflation. He goes on to an even more academic speech where he says the natural rate or the equilibrium Interest Rate may rise only gradually. Rates will remain low by historical standards to the future. He said Central Banks have options at the zero lower bound, pushing back against people who say that Central Banks are impotent now given were at zero an used qe at negative rates. The fed he says may face more instances of zero rate conditions given that underlying growth is lower. Finally, he says stabilized Energy Prices will ultimately show that Lower Oil Prices ar