hurricane warnings in effect, winds will be 115. there will also be land falling waterspouts and tornadoes with this storm along the florida coast. even inland possibly as far inland as ocala, orlando. this is kind of the right side of the eye here toward tampa and inland. so, yes, so many things are going to go wrong. not will. the things that could go right, the water could be cold. it is not. there could be a lot of shear. right now there is but that will end tonight. there could be some land interaction. there won t be. there could be some dry air. there is not. so those are the four things that could cool the storm down, and we have none of it. we have nothing other than things to make the storm get stronger. and up toward the big bend of florida here, this is the area here cedar key, highway 19, i-10 will likely be shut down at some point in time with these trees falling on the interstate,
this is coming. it sounds like this is one of those moments. it really is. it doesn t look impressive and people are going, oh, that s nothing. we talk about what can kill a storm. cold water, land interaction, dry air, wind shear. this storm will encounter none of those. warm water, no shear, no land interaction and the water is just insanely hot there in the gulf of mexico. so, yes, all of the things are coming together for this storm to intensify. it isn t moving much. only 3 miles per hour right now, but by monday, it gets into a very warm gulf of mexico and it is forecast to be a 100 mile per hour storm and that may be conservative. hurricane watches are posted in places like florida. tomorrow is your day to get ready per this because the storm surge, seven to 11 feet along the big ben, but if that storm turns a little bit to the right all of a sudden a major population center is in the way and tampa, the bay area, you are going to have impacts even if
i guess that would be on sunday morning. and the centre itself is going to scrape the coast up towards southern california. now, once you get north, the point, eugenia, which is that little peninsula right in the middle of baja thatjuts out into the pacific, the water temperatures get very cold. so we re going to have the combination of cold water, increasing vertical wind shear from the upper level, low and upper level trough up to its north northwest that s pulling it northward. and land interaction with the peninsula ranges of baja california that extend into the southern part of the state of california and the united states, they re all going to work to weaken the system. it s probably not going to have a whole lot of central thunderstorm activity by the time it gets to southern california. but that s not really where we re expecting the main threat. we re expecting the main threat to be from all this moisture, instability and strong winds that are coming up from the gulf of califo
personnel and supplies in the region, and they are ready to respond as needed. i urge everyone, everyone in the path of the store and to take precautions and listen to the guidance of state and local officials. david roth is a weather forecaster. the storm is moving northward and is expected near the coast of baja california peninsula at about. i guess that would be on sunday morning. and the centre itself is going to scrape the coast up towards southern california. now, once you get north, the point, eugenia, which is that little peninsula right in the middle of baja thatjuts out into the pacific, the water temperatures get very cold. so we re going to have the combination of cold water, increasing vertical wind shear from the upper level, low and upper level trough up to its north northwest that s pulling it northward, and land interaction with the peninsula ranges of baja california that extend into the southern part of the state
have category 4 winds in southern california. however, the impacts will be significant mainly because we re going to catch a large population density off guard because this hasn t happened since 1939, the last time a tropical storm made landfall. the official track shows a landfall and tropical storm, does it move inland? does it stay over open water? that s to be determined. one thing for sure, it will interact with significantly cooler ocean waters, and that will help weaken the storm as it approaches the southwestern u.s. if the track takes it offshore, so no land interaction with the baja peninsula, more of a coastal impact, so look out for large waves, coastal erosion and urban flooding possibility between los angeles and specifically into san diego. if this storm takes a more easterly track, this brings the greatest impacts inland to southern california, parts of western arizona and southern nevada sunday into monday. we ll look out for the wind