to expect on the northern gulf coast. right now tropical depression 16. not upgraded to tropical storm nate. not organized enough. no central core. need the thunderstorm to be wrapped around the center to get that core to start to become a stronger storm. right now that s not happening. all the thunderstorms are well away from the center. as long as that continues, stay a weaker storm. that s great. want it to stay weak. 35-mile-per-hour winds. right along the coast of nicaragua. because of land interaction, going remain weak for the next 28 hours. gives it 48 hours to stay stronger. key period over the western caribbean and southern gulf. cancun looks like it could be hit by a 65-mile-per-hour tropical storm. minor impact there. all the tourists or vacation have one day to stay indoors. that would not cause a lot of wind damage. then the storm system could possibly head up to category one and make land fall again. that cone goes from just about pensecola panama city area to central lo
starting to get back together. it had weak owned over northern cuba. that land interaction temporarily setback the hurricane. now that it s over the florida straits, this water is bath water felt even hotter than that. 90 degree water temperatures here. unfortunately our worst fears are starting to come through with this storm system regenerating itself. it s not even to the keys yet. so this outer eyewall still has to come a shore before things get better there. that s going to be a couple more hours yet. conditions there in the keys really about to go downhill and very quickly. in fact, an 88 mile per hour wind gust here in the last hour at marathon key. if you re familiar with keys, marathon is about halfway through that long trip from key west to miami. very healthy eyewall now. as we were talking earlier this morning, bill was showing you a double eyewall, but now we have one single eyewall and that allow this is storm to
out the possibility that it gets there again. because there is a lot of very warm water ahead of it. in some cases 90-degree temperatures in front of the storm with not a lot of land interaction. as we go into saturday and sunday, we re thinking landfall saturday, sunday night or rather saturday night into sunday. and ace mentioned, these are the two reliable forecast models. both of them coming into very good agreement that the center of this storm is going to come on top of south florida and scrape up the whole coast of florida over the next couple of days. then, of course we will watch the carolinas and georgia and tennessee as the storm continues to move north and eastward. there is our gfs model moving right on top of south florida. that is worse case scenario right there. worst of the storm surge. worst of the winds. worst of the rains catastrophic. back to you. steve: all right. janice. looked for a while like the west coast was going to dodge a bullet because it was moving to t
certainly the eye wall makes landfall sometime saturday into sunday across south florida. sea surface temperatures i want to make mention of this because we have seen a little bit of weakening. we still have very warm water ahead. close to 90 degrees with not a lot of land interaction, so there is the potential for this to be upgraded again to a cat 5. cat 4, cat 5 doesn t matter. it s going to make a huge impact on south florida and the keys. the models in good agreement right now. saturday night to sunday making impact on not just south florida but the whole state of florida. and this storm takes up the whole peninsula. so it s going to cover the whole peninsula as it makes landfall. and then eventually moves up towards the carolinas and georgia that will be our next story for now we are watching florida. listen to your officials. listen to your local forecast. get out if they tell you to do so, your time is running
the possibility of landfall as early as this weekend but temperatures very warm ahead of the storm, not a lot of land interaction and the storm certainly has the capability of strengthening further. here s the steering pattern, the bermuda high helping move the storm westward. we have a trough and whether or not the storm interact with the trough pushes it more northward is yet to be determined but again not to pay attention to the center of this code that anywhere within the cohen of uncertainty we could see potential for irma to move westward and affect not only the florida keys, south florida, perhaps the gulf coast as well towards the southeast so everyone needs to be on alert, state of emergency south florida, however the east coast needs to monitor this, the gulf coast needs to monitor irma as well, tracking the storm for the next 5 to 10 days. heather: one of the lessons from harvey is to prepare.