That kind of liquidity will be hard to fight. That is putting the fed in a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. The fed will not make a policy mistake if everything is fine. If the data does not get worse. Which people are forecasting. You could have an economy where the second half is bouncing back. The second half we should see that fade. The fed is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. They should not continue that Balance Sheet expansion. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . The fed playbook is to cut big and fast and signal qe if there is weakness. Thats a big risk for the market. Jonathan joining me around the table is greg staples, lisa hornby, and ken monahan. Your thoughts on that, ken . Is it or isnt it qe . Ken i know mr. Kashkari is trying to throw cold water on the idea that it is not, but even being in minneapolis, he doesnt have enough water to throw it to convince the market it is not.
That is putting the fed in a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. The fed will not make a policy mistake if everything is fine. If the data does not get worse. Which people are forecasting. You could have a second half where the economy is bouncing back. The second half we should see that fade. The fed is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. They should not continue that Balance Sheet expansion. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . The fed playbook is to cut big and fast and signal qe if there is weakness. Thats a big risk for the market. Jonathan joining me around the table is greg staples, lisa hornby, and ken monahan. Lets talk about it, ken. Your thoughts on that, is it or isnt it qe . Ken i know mr. Kashkari is trying to throw cold water on the idea that it is not, but even being in minneapolis, he doesnt have enough water to throw on it to convince the market it is not. I think the market call i
Be hard to fight. That is putting the fed and a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. If the data does not get worse. You it creates the risk of a policy mistake. Could have an economy where the second half is bouncing back. The fed is actually going to is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . Cuthe fed playbook is to tight and fast and signal if there is weakness. Jonathan joining me around the table is greg staples, lisa hornby, and ken monahan. Your thoughts on that, can . Is it or isnt it qe . Mr. Kashkari is tried to throw water on the idea that it is not, but even being in minneapolis, he doesnt have enough water to throw to convince the market it is not. I think the market call is correct on this. Jonathan why . I get his point, they are substituting one instrument for another. Could have an economy the way the market is looking at this, this is providing more
Countries, canada and mexico, are our number one and number three markets for agricultural exports. Problems withn our exports imposed by the countries, particularly canada, has been very restrictive of our wheat and dairy. That is one thing. The more important thing, in some ways, are the new rules of origin, which will guarantee many more automotive jobs coming back to the u. S. That had been sent overseas by the poorly drafted rules of our origin in the original nafta. 75,000eve there will be new jobs created in automotive, a total of at least 175,000 in all sectors of the economy. Give us a secretary, sense as best you understand it, once usmca goes into effect, will there be more trade or less . Pat toomey has said that we think this will actually be trade restrictive. What do you think . Wilbur i think he is simply wrong. I dont think he understands the details of the agreement. I think he is simply wrong. David so youd expect there to be more trade as a practical matter. Is ther
0year, we probably have to be looking at a global recession. We are going to test 1 . A lot of things would have to go incredibly wrong to get the 1 . You have to have a recession to get there. The u. S. Economy could go to recession. Unless the market begins to price an additional cuts, the 10 year at most will drop down to the 160 range. The fed will have to ease again. The fed is going nowhere. If there is any sort of weakness in the data, you will see an outsized rally in bonds. Jonathan joining me, kathy jones, george bory, and in chicago, jim bianco. Jim, lets begin with you, looking out to 2020, it seems the consensus view is for rates they are or go lower. Where you come down in that debate right now . Jim i think thats probably right. Rates will probably drift lower. Thats been the story the last 10 years. Weve had no inflation, we are in a record expansion, we cannot generate any inflation right now, rates are down 75 basis on ts this year, at least the 10year yield. The path