colleagues across the nations and regions and the news where you are but from the ten o clock team, good night. one of the last big electoral tests before a general election is over. will the results determine keir starmer s chances of entering downing street? dirty polls closed polls closed 30 minutes ago. nick and election guru john curtice are here to game the outcome. and a cabinet minister, a shadow cabinet minister and the deputy leader of the lib dems will all be spinning their narratives. also tonight, an exclusive newsnight investigation into misogny and a boys culture in police scotland. four female former employees, three of them longstanding officers, banding together as whistle blowers, speak out. it was like a russian roulette. i either put the grievance in, lose my career, or i don t put the grievance in and i lose my career because i m getting accused of throwing weapons, which didn t happen. ultimately it didn t just take my career. it took my mental healt
points ahead of the conservatives. i don t want to put words in john s don t want to put words injohn s mouth, but i think we will hear that they need to be ten points ahead. their view is that that does not take account of their remarkable progress they think they are making in scotland, which means that they don t need to do quite so well in the rest of great britain. for the conservatives, they are saying this is a tough night for the conservatives, having been in power for 13 years. they are talking about 1000 seat losses, and what they are trying to say is to put it on to labour and say, you need to sort of result that you had in the local elections in 1995. there were 2000 tory losses there. labour got a8% of the vote, and the reason why they say that is that if keir starmer gets the swing that tony blair got in 1997, he onlyjust squeaked in to downing street. then interestingly, the conservatives think that labour is going after some marquee winds that will look good but is not
nottinghamshire, sandwell and the mass woodlands, the tees valley? finally, the lib dems are saying because they did so well in the six last time, even stevens would be good. they think they may get 150 gains, and they will be very pleased with that. 0k, with that. ok, john, let s have your analysis on the back of that. well, you have already heard from nick i love a lot of discussion about the parties about expectations of seats gained and lost. i think we have to say that they will come with a very substantial health warning. not least because 5000 of the 8000 seats up for grabs yesterday were in the small shia district councils in england. many of these have elections for two three seats rather than just one. elections for two three seats rather thanjust one. so elections for two three seats rather than just one. so these elections are going to dominate the results in terms of gains and losses. the honest truth is also what which does not seats but votes, and that is