Message in the market that we need to Pay Attention to i think its interesting because last weeks the markets were so weak and everyone felt so despondent that this week was going to be just a replay of last week. I think that as the election is here today, people are settled, i think, into the fact that we will have a result i thisnk the market thinks we will have a result in the next 24 hours i think we all have fatigue from this election and i this i just havi i think just having a decision is what the market is pricing in now and after the decision, well go from there. I think the market is positive for clarity. It may not be clear but well see tomorrow what actually happens. Unless the market is getting ahead of itself. If you go by our cnbc states of play poll, only one in five think youre going to have an answer tonight on election night. The market seems to be acting over the next couple of days like were going to go to bed knowing who the next president will be or donald trump
Thematic global team if you were looking for big tech to come to the rescue today, youre going to have to look somewhere else that is your picture right now with the nasdaq getting hit the hardest, down more than 300 points, 2 3 4 look, this is not what we wanted people like me have been talking about the broadening of the rally. You were getting that but this week youve had the down side, which we didnt want to see of tech giving up gains its been the whole week, right. Microsoft had a bad reaction to earnings having said all that, i dont think at all that youre supposed to throw in the towel on these big tech nailmes. I think their value iations arer the most part defendable and theyre trading on lack of fiscal stimulus and the virus surging as it is on the earnings number if you want to take apple, theres a reason why they underperformed on iphone sales people are saving you for the iphone 12. And amazon, they have a quarter every now and then where they say were going to spend a lo
Taranova were green across the boards. Dow, s p, nasdaq all green jim, we have a big rebound in the nas names. Best pace on the month since january of 1987. Well, scott, first off, thank you. Every year you and throughout the year you give a lot of respect to veterans. It means a lot to me personally. You and the team at cnbc, thank you very much. Onto the markets look, a little reversal today where the cyclicals are fading and tech is rallying i think thats healthy i mean, look, weve had one heck of a rotation. Not just this week but in the last two months its been going on its time for a pause. And i think the most Important Message here is, anyone whos feeling like they missed out, you dont need to feel that way. If you feel like you missed out on the tech rally of the summer, well, guess what, september and october have given you the opportunity to get into those largecap tech names, the faang names. If you feel like you missed on you the on the cyclical rally, thats going to go on
Lets bring in our guests today, arguing that stocks might not be so close to new highs for very long mike wilson, Morgan Stanley, back with us good to see you. Glad to be back. 10 correction is the most likely outcome why is that . Its a continuation from the call we made in september where we got a 10 correction. We walrallied back all this comes back to our framework. We look at the valuation its pretty full volatility has picked up because of the events they know are out there, whether its the virus, the second wave, or the election the premium we believe is a bit understated from where it should be thats all were saying. Its full here these risks are not going away for the next 30 days theyll be with us so, look, the range we put out in august, 3,100 to 3,550 holds. Were still bullish on the vshaped recovery, the call we made a while ago we think its a new bull market. But its risk reward and the risk reward for the upper end of the rage is not that good. If the facts change, could
Joe, its these mnuchin headlines getting something done in terms of stimulus by the election, he says, is tough. That caused a bit more of a selloff in stocks and it underscores why the nasdaq continues to have a bit under it yes, it does clearly and youre also seeing a little bit of a fallback in yield, scott. The tenyear is pushing back towards 70 basis points, somewhat troubling, i would think the market needs a little bit of some of the Forward Momentum that its been carrying in the last week or so to really cool off a little. I think we were getting a little too vertical in the way we were appreciating so the negative news that youre getting on the stimulus aligns with maybe a much needed little bit of pause in that rate of appreciation im not overly concerned by it. Yeah, rates are falling you see it there 71 basis points is where we are on the tenyear, an issue to deal with, tiffany, or perhaps the message in the fall. Everything is coming down on the mnuchin comments but its mo