could put it up on the screen again. you do see the cpi coming down and average earnings going up just a little bit. you want those to meet, right? you want the dark line to cross the green line. is that where it s going, where pay increases will outpace price increases? it s a good question and especially after what we ve seen all year. wage growth, it doesn t account for all income but it s a pretty good proxy for income and the fact that for 2022 it has not been keeping up with price growth that basically key kwats to declining purchasing power all year. that s what s gotten us to where we are. inflation slowing is a good sign and definitely essential for us to avoid any major crisis next year. absolutely inflation does seem to be heading in the right direction and there s reasons to think that will continue. wage growth, though, if unemployment does pick up, which is likely with more rate increases, wage growth could be
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the rate increase. so as you know they ve been raising rates a lot every time they ve been meeting, trhree quarters of a percentage point. but they are likely to raise rates by half of a percentage point. if if if we keep getting inflation numbers like this, in january it could be a quarter percentage point. so rate increases and still higher rates ahead of us. but the good news is the sizes of those increases are starting to abate and i think by early next year we re getting to a place where they could stop and stop raising rates and take a look around. i did want to ask, because if we see inflation slowing, and that obviously was a key thing that the fed needs to see in the in moderating their interest rate hikes. what then is the key question now for the fed going forward? well, they want to make sure that inflation keeps coming in, right. 7% is a long way from their target. they re target is closer to 2%. that is true.