later this month maybe by a quarter or half point. i would agree with austan. the trade war is exacerbating trends that would normally occur at this point of the cycle. the weakness we saw in manufacturing, which grew less in terms of jobs than expected, retail, amazon disruptions and other things aside, also being affected by the tariffs being imposed, yeah. we re going to probably see under 2% growth this year, stephanie. the atlanta federal reserve, their current forecast for this quarter is 1.5%. when you start looking at these averages i ve been talking about it in terms of a growth recession where we grow below trend. that puts a lid on hiring. it may actually result in some job losses over time. particularly going into 2020. it s going to keep the fed pretty defensive irrespective of why the president wants the federal reserve to lower interest rates. they ll have a reason to in the near future. if we weren t in the middle of this trade war would the fed be cutting rates? no
potentially contributing to a recession. we re not going in a good direction here. global economic slow down. we talked about this with kendis. nine major economies are in or near recession, including germany, which will go into recession this quarter. that has a negative feedback for the united states. the longer this persists, the higher the risk we ll see a global recession. that includes, if not a real recession, but a growth recession. we re growing well below trend, nowhere near the 3% or better than the president wants. and maybe less than 20% of this goes on. putting a lot of pressure on the september trade talks? on the september trade talks. their policies, and interesting rates are going around the world. not in panic mode. but everybody is looking for ways to stimulate. ron insana. thank you to my panel. thank you so much for joining us. coming up at 9:00, another
some of that is of a broader global concern. when you also start to worry about the u.s. economy slowing down and we ve seen interest rates drop, sending off a cautionary signal, a growth recession, sub par growth could come to the u.s. we re seeing some rates drop. that s in anticipation of slower growth down the road. some people are calling for sub 1% growth in 2019 for the u.s. economy. that means likely that the federal reserve is done raising interest rates. at least in my view, they re done for now and possibly for the cycle. and we ve also seen a host of other indicators. today s job report was strong. private sector payroll employment, that s a lagging indicator. the leading indicators are slowing. that s a problem. and the things that look forward as opposed to things that measure what happened. employment isn t back. employment is always what happened last month. we had the recovery in the stock market the last five days.
the markets over last december, pretty bad overall, doesn t necessarily mean that the economy is at a bad point right now. no. in fact, you know, the economy is in decent in fact, quite strong shape at the moment. most economists, observers like myself think it s anticipatory and not reactionary. when bond market interest rates are falling as inflation expectations come down and sensitive commodity prices drop as they have, it can be a protend of slower growth. and i think that is what the markets are pricing. could be a growth recession where you go below trend for a period of time and that may be what the markets are sussing out here. talk to me about this decision of mnuchin call the big banks. that was a mind blower.
they were checking to see how it is taking the s&p more than 20%. the strangest thing is bare market does not create a crisis. our banks are liquid and well capitalized. this is not a financial crisis. this is a garden variety. it is an important point. the president has talked these markets down in a weird way. in september in august and september we were flying high. december has been grusome. it does not make a recession. no. i think the odds of a rescission are going up in 2019 or growth recession. it is growth than anyone would like. clearly if you look at modty markets, the price here is a message out there. yes. bond yields are falling fast. that is ten year sbos into a expansion. there are ways in which a