later this month maybe by a quarter or half point. i would agree with austan. the trade war is exacerbating trends that would normally occur at this point of the cycle. the weakness we saw in manufacturing, which grew less in terms of jobs than expected, retail, amazon disruptions and other things aside, also being affected by the tariffs being imposed, yeah. we re going to probably see under 2% growth this year, stephanie. the atlanta federal reserve, their current forecast for this quarter is 1.5%. when you start looking at these averages i ve been talking about it in terms of a growth recession where we grow below trend. that puts a lid on hiring. it may actually result in some job losses over time. particularly going into 2020. it s going to keep the fed pretty defensive irrespective of why the president wants the federal reserve to lower interest rates. they ll have a reason to in the near future. if we weren t in the middle of this trade war would the fed be cutting rates? no