Over. We are just not there yet. There are still some scabs, wounds here. December 15 is looming. I dont know if there will be a trade deal. We dont know how anymore phases we could get. Anything could go wrong at this point. We dont want to end the year on a mediocre note. We need to see the data come through in order to pop the champagne and call the all clear. Jonathan the year is not over yet. Joining me around the table, oksana aronov, george rusnak, and greg peters. Greg, lets begin with you. A real year end field to so many discussions weve been having. How do you have a 2020 call before 2019 is even over . Greg people want to look forward just to look forward. There is such a focus on seasonality. Like the calendar really matters. I dont think so. I dont know why there is such a focus, everything is pulled forward. It is like having christmas commercials before halloween. That is kind of how i feel. A little premature. I am trying to ignore it, actually. Oksana dont predict, pr
Bottoming of the economy in 2020. We are pretty constructive on 2020. We are just not there yet. , there are still some scabs wounds here. I dont know if there will be a trade deal. We dont even know how many war phases we could get. Anything could go wrong at this point. We dont want to end the year on a mediocre note. The year is not over yet. Run the table, oksana aronov, george rusnak, and greg peters. Gray, lets begin with you. A real yearend field to soma discussions weve been having. How do you have a 2020 call before 2019 is even over . Greg people want to look forward just to look forward. There is such a focus on seasonality. Like the calendar really matters. Why there is such a focus everything is pulled forward. It is like having christmas commercials before halloween. That is how i feel. A little premature. I am trying to ignore it, actually. Oksana dont predict, prepare. Predictions unfounded. We are not in the business of Macro Economic predictions. But we are in the bus
Fears about a u. S. Recession are not showing in this report. Very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. Higher wages. The labor market is holding in. We were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. The jury is out in the manufacturing sector. Maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. The question is where it goes from here. Jonathan joining me around the table, my guest. If the payroll report doesnt change what you sour carless of what you thought going into the payrolls report, not a game changer, is it . Is basically confirming status quote for the fed. Theyre on track to cut a five basis points at the september meeting. The real question for me this morning, if it turns out to beweak after the manufacturing data earlier this week, will the market press . There is no fear of that. The pace of job creation is declining. 220,000 jobs per month last year and now its more like 160 per month. Jonatha
Cycle. Fears about a u. S. Recession are not showing in this report. Very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. Higher wages. The labor market is holding in. We were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. The jury is out in the manufacturing sector. Maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. The question is where it goes from here. Jonathan joining me around the table, my guests. If the payroll report doesnt change what you sour carless of what you thought going into the payrolls report, not a game changer, is it . Is basically confirming status quote for the fed. Theyre on track to cut a five basis points at the september meeting. The real question for me this orning, if it turns out to be weak after the weak manufacturing data earlier this week, will the market press . There is no fear of that. The pace of job creation is declining. You had 220,000 jobs per month last year and now its more like 1
Would expect at this late cycle. Fears about a u. S. Recession are just not showing up in this report at all. Very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. You got higher wages and hours trending up. The labor market is holding in. We were worried about manufacturing hours worked and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. The jury is out in the manufacturing sector. Uncertainty is enormous on many fronts. Maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. The question is where it goes the uncertainty goes from here. Jonathan joining me around the table, my guests. For me, the biggest problem with , it doesnt report i change what you sour carless of what you thought going into the payrolls report, not a game changer, is it . It is basically confirming status quote for the fed. Theyre on track to cut 25 basis points at the september meeting. The real question for me this morning, if it turns out to be weak after the manufacturing data earlier