Italy at a record low. We will be going to italy in the next little bit to talk to maria tadeo about those talks. The lira down 6 10 of 1 . 8 10 of 1 germany lower. On a flurry of geopolitical headlines, we are joined by tom globalndstrat advisors head of research. Anything in the last couple of weeks to do with the fed, to do with earnings, that has changed your outlook fundamentally on yearend s p 500 . Tom i think theres been a lot of stresses to our base case. Our base case is assuming there is going to be china trade tensions and there isnt going a fed change. Vonnie how much is that a problem . Clearly we are seeing business spending cut back. We are also seeing businesses blame china, like autodesk, for example. How much is it actually impacting the economy . Tom i think the Downside Risk is really escalation. If we are talking about what was implement it even just in the past week, i think the levels of tariffs are still something businesses can work around. I think theyve prov
China has started to back off from holding u. S. Treasuries. Lets dive into the action. Lets look at the dow. It breached the 200day moving average. Will p 500 suggesting it go to the 200moving day average. A lot of People Discount the dow. This is a oneyear year chart ahead of the volatility. Thedow has been above 200day moving average, slicing through in december, climbing above it in february. Late may and june the brief exception. Today slightly below. Today, the dow put in a lower a dropich confirms towards last decembers lows. Whether that happens, who knows . If this is a bearish chart the volatility we have seen continues. Thanks. Im watching crude oil come down for a second straight session. The u. S. China trade were threatening demand. Stockpileswing u. S. At a time when we should be seeing stronger demand at the end of the summer driving season. Around 55 a barrel. It is flirting with that average , and sentiment in the market is bearish. Caroline we thank you. More breakin
Once again, delaying a decision until october. Love them or hate them, etfs are here to stay and flows often signal Broader Market trends. Eric balchunas checks it out. And eric, its very much a picture of derisking . Eric yes. It is. Scarlet, thank you. Prices are down. It has been a choppy market. A lot of volatility in the last couple of weeks but the flows are really hanging tough for u. S. Equities and fixed incomes. Two aberrations we are seeing, and a lot of money going into gold. On the other side, a lot of money leaving emerging markets. Look at the bloodbath in emerging markets. That is only over one week. Over the past couple of months, they have seen a couple of billion dollars come out quickly. What really struck me about this chart is img is on here. These are the cheap ones that retail uses. This is beyond the trading crowd into retail. Lets look at imgs flows since it came out. Just to get an idea of how weird it is that img it has never seen outflows in eight years. Wh
Action with abigail. Abigail lets stick with this roller coaster theme and ask the question did amazon have a capitulation bottom . Overnight, the futures were actually higher, then down, down, down, almost down to present as you all were talking about earlier today, then up, almost. 1 31 of the most bullish reversals since 2017, that big selloff. S p 500 andbout the perspective on the 50day moving average. Started lasttility winter, we saw the best case for the s p 500 to weave up and down around the 60day moving average. Lots of volatility, however, in the fourth quarter, sharply lower. This does not look like a capitulation bottom, joe, i will toss it back to you. Joe great chart. Thank you ray much am abigail. Still with us, tom lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Gina Martin Adams of bloomberg intelligence. Whether it is the september fed decision or the trade war front or anything else, what would you like to see, or is there anything particular you need to see that will help yo
His view on rates. Criticism of the fed, President Trump renews his attacks saying Jerome Powell and his team dont have a clue. Lets look at how markets closed. The dow fell for the first time in five sessions. Session,thin trading after the Independence Day holidays. S p 500 down. 2 , led lower by health care and utility stocks for the main focus during the session was on the very strong u. S. Labor report. 224,000,ayrolls rising leading expectations to pare back some of the fed rate cuts. You have treasury yields, 10 year yield also retake the 2 and u. S. Stocks falling from record highs. Lets see how u. S. Futures are looking unchanged. See how the asian markets are shaping up. Sophie futures are looking at a mix of potential gains in tokyo but we could see declines in kiwi stocks under pressure but marginally to the downside. Asian stocks could take cues from wall street action after the u. S. Jobs report. Speaking of jobs, Deutsche Bankers across the region will learn their fate a