China has started to back off from holding u. S. Treasuries. Lets dive into the action. Lets look at the dow. It breached the 200day moving average. Will p 500 suggesting it go to the 200moving day average. A lot of People Discount the dow. This is a oneyear year chart ahead of the volatility. Thedow has been above 200day moving average, slicing through in december, climbing above it in february. Late may and june the brief exception. Today slightly below. Today, the dow put in a lower a dropich confirms towards last decembers lows. Whether that happens, who knows . If this is a bearish chart the volatility we have seen continues. Thanks. Im watching crude oil come down for a second straight session. The u. S. China trade were threatening demand. Stockpileswing u. S. At a time when we should be seeing stronger demand at the end of the summer driving season. Around 55 a barrel. It is flirting with that average , and sentiment in the market is bearish. Caroline we thank you. More breaking news. Perspective,e into falling 11 for the worst oneday lost in 11 years. Whistleblower crisis file play on accounting. News out of Applied Materials, coming out with . 74, net sales it isbillion, but for now that eps number that beats estimates, the highest testaments, lifting the stock by 3 in afterhours trade. Joe still with us is our guest, wells fargo asset management, and luke. Next week will be big, jackson hole, Jerome Powell will speak. Could this be a turnaround point for the markets, having the central bankers speak and layout their issues . Could this catalyze the move higher . August andin september is a dangerous thing to do. You want to look through all the volatility we are seeing. A lot of attention will be on any language or commentary, but there are so many factors, especially the trade uncertainty. We will have to see how that plays out. When you look at the Different Companies that have reported results, is there anything that has surprised you about how much they are willing to say or want say when it comes to the trade war are uncertainty related to policy . It is par for the course. It is interesting when you see the dollar trotted out, the old excuse. I think there was a tendency when markets were in freefall mode recently to say how bad the recent earnings season was. The earnings surprises were about the revenue surprises, assign that the margin compression is not as bad as feared, so the backdrop is not as dire as we might reason it to be. Caroline certainly not when youre looking at walmart. Still seems to be there. At what point would you worry . Consumers are 70 of the u. S. Economy. As long spending holds up, Interest Rates low will help consumers, especially in terms of carrying debt, so, so far, so good. The thing driving the volatility is uncertainty around Administration Policy and Central Banks actions. Will we see more qed . Those are the qe . Those of the questions in my mind. Caroline we did hear europe, comments being circulated by a key ecb member saying a lot of stimulus will shock people when it comes to ecb. How important is what is happening around the world with Central Bank Policy and are you looking to invest anywhere else or is the u. S. The best game in town . What you want to do is look through this. Dividend yield around the world, we were looking at 4 to 5 on bluechip names, and we want to exploit the bluechip volatility and look through this. My recommendation is dont trade this market, but look for opportunities you want to own, october, november. Caroline stay cool for the summer. Thank you. Caroline lets have more breaking news. General electric down 11 for the worst day lost in 11 years. We know that ge directors calling the allegations of accounting fraud baseless. Ge fighting that back forcefully, saying it is market manipulation. Scarlet Applied Materials out with results, Third Quarter bottomline and topline beating the average estimate. The fourth quarter, adjusted eps midpoint of its range, beating the average estimates, so the stock remains higher in afterhours, gaining 2 . That does it for the closing bell. Next is whatd you miss . We will have more on the Global Economic picture as well. This is bloomberg. Caroline live from new york, im caroline hyde. Here is a snapshot of u. S. Stock markets. S p. Ose higher on the joe whatd you miss . Caroline the bond rally marches on as investors grapple with headlines. , a fifth earnings wow game, revealing a healthy consumer in the face of the trade war. , thefends its financials stock plunges 11 as a whistleblower slams the companys accounting. Fearse recession continue to shake markets. U. S. Stocks swinging between gains and losses. Treasury yields have plummeted as investors remain on edge. Is a managing director of microstrategy joining us now from los angeles macro strategy joining us now from los angeles. N, we have seen this flight to treasuries, gold, the yen. When you look at the inversion on the yield curve, what is it secularyou, recession, stagnation, or we are panicking for no reason at all . There is some panic, but the bond market has discounted the risk of deflation in the future. There is such a decline in longterm Interest Rates, already the term premium is negative come Inflation Expectations falling sharply, so the bond market is grappling this slow will impact the u. S. Economy in the foreseeable lower,will only lead to if not a risk of deflation. It will continue for a bit, even though the tariffs are delayed, it does not look like the u. S. Economy will be insulated from the weakness elsewhere. Madefor president bullard the point that we have had volatility on the year, but still up on the year. Is there a gap between what bonds are saying and the stock market still far from pricing in a recession . There does seem like there is a gap. The bond market is clearly pricing and slower growth. Market isp, the stock grappling with that, but we still have strong returns year today. You have to take into account where we are from a year ago. We have pretty much gone nowhere over the past year. If you look at company profits, we saw a huge run up in the aftermath of the tax cut. Indid see that front runned the stock market, but since then , they have not gone much of anywhere, so the stock market is grappling the idea you are still getting growth in company profits, maybe not stellar, but still matching the return we saw last year, which was pretty strong. If growth is slower, what does that mean for companies and businesses . Becomes thepan now biggest holder of u. S. Treasuries rather than china. Many have been talking about the reason we are seeing the the long end is because we have money coming in, negative yields in japan, germany. How much of this is a Global Growth concern or global volatility concern . Those flows are expressing that, not just out of japan or europe, but against emerging markets. There are concerns that some economies are dipping into recession, said the treasury market becomes a big hedge against the global recession picture we are facing. This is why this momentum to buy the long bond is so strong. Previous episodes show a similar way when you go back the 2008 , thes or 2005 or 2000 perception was the u. S. Economy would slow down too, so treasury yields will probably declined to the lows of 2016. Romaine one thing the chart didnt show his domestic buyers, which have gone up. We have seen a lot of accounts sopping up the excess or extra supply the treasury has been pumping out. What does that tell you about the sentiment we are seeing domestically . That people are concerned and clearly putting their money into bonds, safe havens, not just fixed income, the japanese yen, when you look at gold as well, but that is why some people are saying it is dangerous to assume this time is different, but some people are saying this time could be different because the fact of the matter that you have so many foreign buyers pouring money into bonds because there is nowhere else to go. You look at the bond yields across the globe and they are so depressed, so if you want to go into a safe haven assets, you want some yield. You have nowhere else to go pretty much than the u. S. , so that argument is being made. Joe we are talking about the shortage of the yield globally as a major reason why money might flow to u. S. Treasuries. I think that is part of the reason some people say it is different this time, not quite like past inversions, not about the fed hiking rates to beat inflation, whatever. Or isdifferent this time, that something people say every time and every time it turns out to be a mistake . It is not really different. If you look at the inversion playing out today versus 2005 to 2006, or 2000 to 2001, very similar pattern. We are now getting this huge rally in the 30year. I think this is a very similar effect of how markets discount gdpng off a 3. 5 percent, 4 last year, you have decelerated, alternate ending up in contraction, which we are seeing in the u. K. , germany, and other parts, but the u. S. Is moving towards that. The real yields in the u. S. That we should watch, those are declining quickly. That is what is pointing to this growth concern in the u. S. Which comeariffs into effect in the last tranche and theres not much room to see a big boosting growth in the u. S. , it will likely contract. Ben ofank you to Medley Global Advisors and sarah ponczek. Chart that caught my eye was showing walmart signaling something similar to the yield curve. It is the ratio of walmart to the s p 500. Walmart has been climbing lately. It also climbed in previous recessions. Walmart has been a stellar performer that has outperformed the market overall, nevertheless, there is logic to it because it is the kind of company that people might shop it in a downturn when they are trying to save money, so it could be something to watch in terms of recession indicator if walmarts to meaningfully outperform the market. Romaine it is just about an economic slowdown. Think about consumer staples. 15. 6 , the thirdbest performance on a yearly basis. Secondbest performance on quarterly basis. Over the past four or five months, it is the number one performing sector, so you have a lot of people positioning into these companies. Joe great point. Will pull up the chart during the break. More on walmart, boosting its fullyear outlook after strong secondquarter sales come shrugging off the u. S. China trade war. This is bloomberg. Romaine nvidia out with earnings. It appears to be beat. Revenue at 2. 6 billion. The estimate was 2. 54 billion. 1. 24, the have adjustment was 1. 14. The Company Providing guidance for thirdquarter revenue at 2. 9 billion, plus or 2 . The estimate was 2. 98 billion, that if they get that plus 2 , they would hit that target. The shares are up about 6 . Caroline another company that did well, walmart, standup performance is it managed to wow investors, upgrading its fullyear forecast. It caught the attention of donald, tweeting as we speak, saying walmart, great indicator of how the u. S. Is doing just released outstanding numbers. Our country, unlike others, is doing great. So he clearly thinks this is a show for the rest of the retail landscape. Our Senior Analyst is with us to show thelmart going to u. S. Consumer is really there . That is hard to say because of where walmart play s. If you saw overall retail spending seems pretty good, particularly online. That was because of the sales and promotions around prime day, so walmart has invested a lot in their only channel, groceries but itannel, groceries, certainly indicates the strength of maybe the lower in consumer, or perhaps that people feel comfortable to trade down, not necessarily broad strength, because you saw the department store, the middle tier, so we have to worry also about the highend as Foreign Tourists pullback. Romaine we had the tree from the retail analyst in chief there. I could understand why he would want to celebrate the numbers for walmart. We do have good retail sales numbers, but when you peel back, there is an imbalance in terms of retailers doing well and why they are doing well. Yes. Romaine why is walmart doing better than others . You will continue to see strength at a walmart, target, amazon, multiple categories that categories, home, apparel, and theyre getting that traffic and pushing out retailers, like bed bath beyond. Know, these are commoditized products, broadly speaking, you are getting at these places, so you will go where you think is the best price value for you, and that happens to be those three retailers. Joe we know walmart is doing well on grocery, online ordering, pickup is doing well, and you mention prime day, that provided a boost, but fundamentally, ecommerce, without grocery, without fake holidays piggybacking on a competitors fake holiday, are they showing traction . They have shown growth online. Joe are they getting market share or is that keeping track . I am sure they are getting market share, maybe from offline retailers, but online is not a profitable business. That is why you are seeing this other omni channel investment in the pickup and store, and that is what the retailers are trying to do. You have to offer it, but you dont want to keep losing money. Toys and what im buying on amazon, a large part of them are from china. Are largely from china. Im wondering at what point, walmart seem to shrug it off do you think that is realistic . 15, they are able to absorb it because they have subscale . Scale . They have the scale to push back on suppliers and have been take some of that hit, but other categories will be her, t,rniture, apparel hur furniture, apparel. They will still be competitive to get the traffic in. We thank you for joining us. Lets check the business flash headlines. Worldsising for the largest shipping line delivering profit better than expected, reassuring investors it can keep its outlook despite an uncertain trade environment. 17 increase in craft beer sales for carlsberg. The danish maker raised its fullyear forecast, shows pricing the most enlisted decade. Thanks around the world have announced 50,000 job cuts, and european banks responsible for 19 of them as they brace for negative Interest Rates that have eaten into the profits for the last five years. Santander plans to live in a jobs. That is your business flash update. Romaine back to breaking news on nvidia come out with earnings. They did beat on secondquarter numbers on revenue and eps. The guidance for the thirdquarter revenue they are saying 2. 9 billion plus or 2 . , thestimate was for 2. 90 compass annual return stock, shares of 6 after hours. Caroline another company able to navigate through trade wars, china exposure come and beat, even though they are seeing revenue decline. Joe the inverted yield curve has more than market watchers worried about recession. Politicians are getting frantic. It could spell trouble for President Trumps reelection. How Bernie Sanders is looking to capitalize. We will hear from his Senior Advisor next. This is bloomberg. I am Mark Crumpton with first word news. Move to omar says the block her and Rashida Tlaib from visiting the country is an insult to democratic values, and denying intrigue limits our ability to learn from israelis, d territories. Said israel blocking her from entering is a sign of weakness. A member of the Palestinian Executive Committee agrees she had this reaction. Is their opinions or a rejection of religion, ethnicity, color, or gender, we dont know, but it is clear it is a sign of weakness that they refused to allow them to come in. Inability tohe deal with the newly elected muslim members are outspoken critics of israels treatment of the palestinians and have repeatedly sparked with President Trump. The Philadelphia District attorney set a suspected gunman fired more than 100 rounds during an hourslong standoff wednesday that left Six Police Officers wounded. All were treated and released from local hospitals. He told reporters today the suspect, reese hill, has not been charged, but he will likely face attempted murder and other charges. That multiple contacts with this man, and the system, following its policies and philosophy at those times, did things that rbc did not stop this incident. Did things that did not stop this incident. I think it is obvious because it is obvious now. It should be obvious in law with that what a lot of us to do in Law Enforcement is risk management, and there will be like it or not occasions when there are bad results. Policephiladelphia commissioner richard ross junior expressed amazement that the standoff which began when officers attempted to serve a drug warrant, ended with no winded and no threatening injuries. He added the situation could have been far worse. Nasa scientists are flying over greenland to track melting ice. Warmer air and water are eating away at greenland, causing it to lose billions of tons of ice daily. Nasa wants to know if water is playing a bigger role as scientists have thought come in meeting sea coulds be rising faster than expected. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Joe the inverted yield curve raising fears about coming odds aon, and increasing downturn could crush President Trumps reelection helps. Byin cirilli is standing with a Senior Advisor for one of the leading democratic candidates, who is helping the message will provide the answer. I am with jeff weaver, a Senior Advisor to Bernie Sanders campaign. A lot of folks on wall street concerned about the prospects for a recession. How is president Bernie Sanders prevent another economic recession . We are coming near the end of the obama recovery and now about to enter the trump recession. We have to make sure we protect the most Vulnerable People in this country, raise wages, protect peoples houses was that people dont lose what they did in the last recession. In terms of the u. S. China trade deal consider sanders and others have argued tariffs might be a needed tool to negotiate with other countries. How would a president sanders and his trade policy differ from President Trump . Bernie sanders voted against these jobkilling trade deals. The difference is donald trump has gone in and dealt with this with a hand grenade. As opposed to sitting down and having discussions, he goes in there and it is mostly bluster and because of the other side to engage in the same kind of conduct. We need to sit down and have real discussions about how we move for that benefits working people of both countries. Tariffs are a tool that can be utilized in negotiations. They are a tool. They are in the constitution. Tariffs are a last resort. The goal is to make sure you have trade rules on the front end cannot be abused. That is number one. In terms of our relationship with china, we have to get back to the table and have real discussions, as opposed to chest puffing. Has the debate continues to move forward within the , theretic primary, usmca has been too much chatter about that. We did see it at the last debate. Senator sanded said he will vote against usmca, why . One of the main problems with these agreements is you give up u. S. Sovereignty. You have an International Panel of this going to tell the u. S. , state governments, local governments, what they can have governing the economy and the environment. That is a fundamental giving up of american sovereignty to corporate interests. That will not happen. You propose a Sanders Administration would go back to the drawing board with mexico and canada . Absolutely. There is appetite on both their parts to have a different trade agreement the nafta. In the past couple of hours, aeli private mr. Banning Prime Minister netanyahu banning two representatives from going to israel. Israel is one of our strong allies. We provide them a lot of assistance. That is government. It has been engaged in some really bad policies holding the country back, pushing down the palestinians. When you criticize the government of israel, you get pushback, but you can be firmly american and criticize the american government, just like israel. The netanyahu government, alleged to have engaged intermittents corruption and far right policies, it is an unhealthy situation. Is this joe bidens party, the Democratic Party . I dont think it has ever been joe bidens party. The rankandfile has moved into a more progressive direction. They understand the way you be trump and transform the economy is to move the country in a different direction and make sure the economy and government work for a broader range of people in this country. I will not ask you to criticize senator elizabeth warren. I know you are friends. What is the biggest difference on policy between senator warren and senator sanders . There are a number of differences. The point you made, they there is a much bigger discussion in the party that personalities about what direction the party will go up moving away. You have a more progressive wing in the old corporatist wing, now withering at its roots. Once you get closer to voting, boaters will pick the individual person come about right now, there is a debate about the direction of the country in the progressive wing of the party. Medicare fraud scheme senator, harris proposed medicare. Is hericare plan medicare plan medicare for all . No, it relies on private insurance companies. You cant provide comprehensive milk Care Health Care for all americans, the only way you can do that is with a single insurance pool of americans come in her plan does not do it. Five minutes, thanks for coming on. Speed round. You will stick around for bloomberg radio. Jeff weaver is a Senior Advisor to senator Bernie Sanders president ial campaign. Romaine thank you. Turning from the u. S. To china and beyond, the trade war is not just a problem for politicians, it is weighing on markets, sending volatility surging with stocks selling off after china said it would retaliate against a fresh round of tariffs from President Trump. For more insight, we welcome our guest, the global head of fundamental equities in the Portfolio Manager in emerging. Arkets and equities thank you for joining us. We have a lot to unpack. Im going to start with emerging markets. In may, we were seeing this rebound in emerging markets bonds, and that fell off bonds, and that fell off a cliff in july. When you see what is happening now with the developments with the yield curve conversion and concerns about a global recession, do you think there is any real, tangible hope for a rebound in emerging markets this year . The only hope i can see is in a trade deal, if that happened before the end of the year. Clearly, the possibilities are dwindling as we get closer to the end and when the Campaign Starts at the beginning of next year, but if we were to have a trade deal, that would be positive for emerging markets. Increases thel uncertainty of companies to invest, it will hit the bottom line, and emerging markets are sensitive to that. You can see it in the earnings. 40 of the companies in emerging markets have reported, and earnings unfortunate are not as we would have hoped. We are seeing some downward revisions. s have beenless, em underperforming the u. S. Market for years now. So even prior to the trade war, there was something structural going on. Trade war aside, is there anything that changes that longer trend . Why have ems perpetually underperformed, and what would change with a trade deal . The answer is simple. Em will outperform developed markets was the Earnings Growth of em is expected to be higher than the Earnings Growth of develop markets. The two curves go together. For many gone in sync years. After the crisis in 2010, because that is when emerging markets felt the crisis, that is when Profit Margins came down. In the u. S. , Profit Margins were cap stable and that is when emerging market started to underperform. You never buy emerging markets because they are cheap, you buy them when you see an uplifting Earnings Growth. Caroline if we see the fed come thewith shock and awe in dollar stays lower for longer come up with that be enough to change the sentiment shortterm . Yes, but the fed would have to be very, very dovish. The only thing i can see happen is they come out and say, the statement that really indicates they want to support the economy and Global Markets, but still, that will not be enough. At some point, the chickens will come to roost and you will see the impact of the trade war on earnings, and that will hurt particularly emerging markets. As long as the trade conflict will underperform. All Global Markets can perform , but thequity markets u. S. Will probably outperform because it has been always one of the more defensive markets. Romaine one theme traders are bringing up is this idea that governments dont have the proper mechanisms to address the global slow down, whether monetary, fiscal policy. I want to turn to argentina, because with the primary that just happen in the potential election of fernandez, im wondering if the government will deliver with the public once, and at the same time, keep markets and the investors and keep those folks happy as well . The answer is probably no. Disagree with those economists. Some governments have the ability to start fiscal stimulus, but they have chosen not to do it, and you can see plenty of examples in europe, germany to name one. N argentina, it is different the government needs to implement policies that will help the population. Obviously not popular when they have an election. I think that is what we have seen during the primaries. Now the government is between a rock and a hard place. We have seen him issue a small stimulus package, but that will not be enough. I doubt it will move the needle. Joe i find this comment interesting about how you cant just look at the cheapness of em , and as long as the trajectory of earnings is weaker than develop markets that they are not viable. The set mean it is not looking at specific country opportunities, or in this environment, which is not great due to trade and other factors, interesting look are closing in on the bottom . You have a point. One of the biggest mistakes investors have made is to look at em as a homogeneous asset class. They are not homogeneous. Brazil, china, the risk and opportunities each country will face are different, so we still see opportunities in em. Argentina right now some issues. We would not want to be there. You are really catching a falling knife, but there are other countries that are more interesting. Caroline i dont think it is even em greece has been up there too, and apparently it is in emerging market. Coming up, shares of General Electric having the worst oneday law since 2008 after the whistleblower ge is not responding. Whistleblower slams the accounting. Ge is now responding. This is bloomberg. Caroline ge plunged the most in 11 years. Aim atleblower is taking the company. Issays the cash situation far worse than disclose. Is far worse than disclose. Issued the following statement. Then, the Short Company he was working on one and two for the buck. Here . S going on , the sheerhings new scale of it, 29 billion, has that caught our attention . He is working with an unidentified hedge fund, so he has motivation but a financial interest at stake. The issues he has raised are not new. There are three key points. Ge isrst is he feels under reserving for long Care Insurance business. He says they are not properly accounting for their stake in baker hughes, and they are generally opaque with the finances and not giving enough detail, and there are gaps between how they get from one number to the next. All of these are known issues magnitude ofthe the insurance reserve requirement is bigger than the other estimates, but it is wellknown they will probably need to put more money into the business. It is a virtual money pit in some ways. They broke these policies at a time when alzheimers was not as prevalent, so the cost of paying for these policies has gone up. Some context as to why we saw such a severe share reaction. The idea is that no one really knows what that number is, 29 billion or the much lower number from ge on the conference call. It seems like there is disagreement over how to fight these businesses. It is difficult because it all is all based on assumptions. At what rate will people get healthier, Interest Rates, so you complete and different assumptions to come up with a number that will suit your purposes, but the recent you are seeing a significant stop drop is because ge has a credibility problem, and i think he is taking advantage of that. It is telling that you see ge come out with multiple statements, the chair on tv to defend the company, financials, and now the stock continues to slight, the worst performance since 2008, and that those you that there is something in there bringing true and investors are concerned. Joe the issues themselves are known. It is the numbers that are different than what people have model or what the company says. Or what the company says. Is that fraud or judgment . This should clearly be the number, or i think it will be higher than what ge says . Accounting an expert, but fraud implies they intentionally cap things up, misled investors, and there is an investigation that will look into just that, so ge is saying we admitted we did not have enough reserves in this business. We have rectified that and will continue to monitor it. They are now looking into the behavior of the predecessors. Brooke sutherland, thank you. A 2. 4 billion to me was package for hong kong, how china is trying to revive the citys economy. This is bloomberg. Romaine amid unrest in hong kong, the government announced a stimulus package worth more than 2 billion and optimism for growth this year. Lets bring in shery ahn. We saw the roll out a variety of payments they will make to businesses and individuals. This idea that it will stimulate the economy. We were waiting for this after carrie lam talked about bold measures. Lets talk about some of them. And if its to citizens would include an extra Social Security payment to recipients. We are also talking about an educational subsidy, not to mention a oneoff electricity chart subsidy for businesses. It would include also waiving fees and charges to benefit sectors, including retail and tourism, that were very much hit when it comes to hit. When it comes to rent on government land, they would benefit from reductions as well. Joe obviously at the margins this will help, but if there are big, existential questions about the future hong kong, this will not do that much. Yeah, we saw the financial secretary reduce the growth rate for this year to basically flat or 1 growth. I know what you are talking about. Right now we are talking about what would become of hong kong as a financial hub. We how ready have seen some movement. Company think that are postponing plan fundraising in hong kong. We have also seen clear signs of blackrock. They have a form in september that they are postponing for the way. Another big foreman hong kong, they are now increasing security. It includes fundamental questions about what happens to hong kong, which was before seen as a gateway to china. Caroline is there any pushback leaders from the billionaires coming up among business leaders, billionaires coming out, that this as her hong kong too much for their liking. They are in a difficult position. These billionaires have a lot of stake in their businesses with the mainland, but they are taking a big hit. Were talking about henry chang, his network down 20 . Wealthhing, his decreasing by 12 , so we have not heard a lot from him, but we have heard from associations linked to them. Caroline we will continue to see how the protests unfold. More on those stories. , tomorrow, and interview with d. O. A. Ceo brian moynihan. Bank of america ceo brian moynihan. Joe i will be looking at Housing Starts in consumer sentiment. Fromine that is all romaine whatd you miss . Joe have a great evening. This is bloomberg. From the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. Everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. Thats why Xfinity Mobile created a Wireless Network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. And the best lte everywhere else. Xfinity mobile is a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy an eligible phone. Click, call or visit a store today. Emily im emily chang in san francisco. Cloudflare files, the latest the unicorn to charge to public market. Is this the right time given its relationship with an online message board . Concrete and cranes. Energy involved gets 110 million
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