better than we thought we were going to do. so let s just map out is it possible. number one, they re at 200. there are two that are likely to win. some news organizations have called this race in new mexico. a lot of people are mentioning to me other news organizations have done it. they can make that call if they want. we are conservative here, the democrat is ahead had. that race gets you to 202. so can you build from 202? again, the magic number s 18. these are ten races where the democrats are ahead. some of them in california, again, it s a jungle primary, there are democrats running against democrats. so a democrat is going to win. we just don t know which one yet. so add in those ten more, that gets you to 212. and that means you are tantalizingly close to protecting and keeping the democratic majority in the house. so what s the next step? well, in alaska and in maine, you have rank-choice voting. the democratic candidates both incumbent members of congress
tell us what you re seeing brianna. well, we are expecting a batch of votes to come in tonight have douglas county, nevada. it s not big, but this race is so close, every vote matters. you can see it here on the map. it s just south of the western edge of the state. officials have said there are about 7,000 votes left to count there, and we expect about 4,000 of those to be reported out tonight in just minutes. why does this small batch of votes matter? well, if the votes follow the current trend, they will favor adam laksalt. after the initial update, he currently leads catherine masto by less than 1,000 votes, so this could add to his very narrow lead. but we are expected updates tobt from the county that could cut into or erase the lead. very interesting.
laxalt. that is a dramatic shift. we just got some new votes in from clark county. clark county is where las vegas is. more than 60% of the vote is there. look what just happened. the new vote reports 17,150 votes for the incumbent democrat. look at the percentages. 63% of these new votes for the incumbent democratic senator, just a third of the votes for the republican challenger. and so that s why this just happened. this has been the dynamic. this is the dynamic in this race. most of the outstanding ballots are here in clark county. it is the largest county in the state. and she has now in clark county opened a 52-45 percentage point lead. 48 to 48, this is a tie. 48.5 to 48.4, 800 votes, just shy of that. this is where the largest number of outstanding votes are still.
i want to bring in david right now. walk us through what candidates need. this nevada race is so critically important. it certainly is. we are started to shrink that universe of what s left outstanding once more votes get reported. we have approximately 68,000 votes remaining to be counted in the state of nevada. so what are you going to look for? brianna just told you we re going to get some douglas county votes soon. each candidate we have calculated or our decision desk has the percentages they need of that remaining outstanding vote in order to win. mast to, the democratic incumbent needs 50-51% of the outstanding vote. does her number contract from that? adam, because the race is so close, he s slightly ahead in the overall race, so he needs
amount. so the question is, is it enough? and that s why in this situation here if you re katie hobbs, you d rather win every installment of votes. but in a republican county, it s not horrible. obviously you always want to win. so let me move it out of the way and show you why this matters right now. here is where we are, 51 if you round up to 49. this is an incredibly competitive race. the bulk of the votes still out here in maricopa county, which is 60%, maybe 62% of the statewide move. she s running 52-47 here. kari lake needs to improve the statewide number. and the way to do that is to improve your number in the largest pool of votes. and that s home to her. she was a tv anchor here in the phoenix area for ten years. at the moment advantage katie hobbs, 26,000. but what makes this so interesting is that katie hobbs has the lead, but it is nowhere near as big as her democratic ticketmate senator mark kelly.