Jonathan for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. Your equity for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. Your equity market 0. 3 . Jackson how starts from now, a week from today starts from nowa week from today chairman powell speak. Lisa how much will he lean into the section. We will have highwe will have hg but not raise rates higher in the short term. Cuts are not in the threshold. Jonathan 5 5 world, on this d market we start with consensus behind the move of the past month. Consensus behind the move of the past month. Lisa now it is time to buy and save but still, this to me is the ultimate question. Will the fed not raise further but raise further but they will hold them straight for a longer time . Aside good or bad news . It has driven of concerns about inflation and deficit. About inflation and deficit. Jonathan and then you have china, what a week for the second biggest economy. Theyve been delivering fixes with currency. Based on the repo
For our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. The s p is positive by 0. 2 . It felt like we were on the brink of a full Ground Invasion all we can. Tom im using the Live Services of all the different news sites and it just migrates forward, waiting. Waiting for what . You could see the politicians. I think the most interesting, jacking near to keep their options open. Jonathan we intended to follow this war through the weekend. Rockets fired at tel aviv and some in israel as well. Back channel talks between the United States and iran. Lisa there is a feeling of a frantic diplomatic relation, the idea of iran, who does not have any formal relation with the u. S. Having back channel talks, also having back channel talks in some capacity with israel. Nobody wants this to percolate out of control. And yet the pressure keeps building and no one can come to any resolution at a time where there are hostages, strikes and
Things have changed, we have different numbers. New highs for 2024. The two youre getting closer to 5 two year. The quote of the last 24 hours around this desk, jp morgans david kelley, the sound of their slingshot on a june cut. Lisa stephen of standard charting, rbc, we are changing our fed call from 45 basis points to one of a duty five basis point move. Yesterday we saw the biggest self, the biggest yields since 2022 and it seems there might be more. Annmarie everyone is trying to revise. Starting to revise. This really seals the fate for the june fomc to push this further back. If we came into this year expecting when will the fed cut, and that is a matter of some people asking if the fed will have a cut in 2022 in 2024. Jonathan two big headlines crossing bloomberg earlier, triggers parenting rate cutlets to less than 25 basis points. Look at for exchange, the euro, 1. 07. The dollar having its biggest oneday since the banking stress of last spring. Dollar, 152. Never mind, it is
Of incremental issuance next year, we think that the recipe for a steeper curve. Is unlikely the curve ends next year steeper than it is currently . Highly unlikely unless the fed puts the rate hikes on ice or starts to ease. Very unlikely scenario. Very much likely contining to flatten. In that environment we of the paint strong growth, inflation maybe ticks up a little bit. It doesnt get out of control. The yield curve continues to flatten. Critically, it does not invert. Im worried about it, too. I think we need to watch it. The 10year treasury, high 230s is meaningful. Here is why. The history of inversions is such that it is tending to be a reliable forward indicator of recession. Whatever you think about the way the world is supposed to work, it does not work that way in the last two weeks of the year. Yes, yields have been going up. I think its a function of very Strong Equity markets. If they were to correct, they would go back down. I want to see them stay there after the firs
Koreas offer to send a delegation to the winter olympics, the first formal talks since 2015. The United Nations Security Council will hold an emergency meeting this afternoon about iran, nikki haley passphrase the demonstrators, saying the United Nations must speak out on their behalf. Russia has warned against external interference and what it sees as irans internal affairs. 21 people have died and hundreds arrested in a week of antigovernment protests and unrest. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 overalists and analysts in 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Noon in new york at 5 00 p. M. In london and 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. I am shery ahn. Vonnie i am vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Shery from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, here are the top stories. It is payroll friday, jobs report delivers a worse than expected rise of just 148,000 jobs with wages come in line. We will discuss that and more with austan goolsbee, the pr