While there are no shortages for now, a great deal hinges on the monsoon, especially its spatial and temporal distribution. That has implications both for the RBI's monetary policy and the government in a year leading to national elections.
The current price inflation in milk is mainly due to a shortage of fat. It has led dairies to hike full-cream milk prices or to cut fat content through rebranding of existing products. Also, milk does not attract GST, while fat and powder used in reconstitution does, an anomalous situation for which the consumer ultimately pays.