US Dollar Forecast: Sinking Despite Rising Inflation - Levels for DXY Index, USD/JPY Advertisement
US Dollar Outlook:
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) continues to trade lower after losing the uptrend from the February and March swing lows.
Higher inflation typically feeds into higher interest rates amid the expectation for central bank tightening. But amid an otherwise resolute Federal Reserve intent on keeping rates low through the end of the pandemic, the US Treasury yield curve has remained stable in the wake of the March US inflation report.
US Dollar Continues to Slide
A banner US inflation report was perhaps the best opportunity the US Dollar had this week for a significant catalyst, but the market has walked away from the March data, well, unimpressed. Even as the pandemic-induced base effect makes it way through the data now and for the next few months, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in his and the FOMC’s intent to keep providing extraord
Monthly Forex Seasonality - April 2021: Bulls on Parade, Trampling USD Advertisement
April FX Seasonality Overview:
By some measures, April has been either the best or second best month of the year for EUR/USD and GBP/USD rates, as well as the S&P 500.
April showers? ‘Terror rains’ down on the greenback: over the past 10-years, April has been the worst month of the year for the US Dollar (via the DXY Index), averaging a loss of -1.09%.
Gold prices have been performing well in April, with gains averaging +2.39% over the past 5-years and +1.4% over the past 10-years.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For April, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environme
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Monthly Forex Seasonality - March 2021: Dollars Mixed but Gold, Stocks Favor Weakness
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March FX Seasonality Overview:
In recent years, March has produced EUR/USD gains, losses by USD/JPY, gold, and stocks. It’s a mixed bag.
US Dollar seasonality (via-a-vis the DXY Index) has been negative over the past 5-years (-0.61%), but positive over the past 10-years (+0.09%).
Gold prices typically struggle in March, as evidenced by both the 5-year (-0.4%) and 10-year (-0.67%) performances.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For March, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.