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Monthly Forex Seasonality - March 2021: Dollars Mixed but Gold, Stocks Favor Weakness
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March FX Seasonality Overview:
In recent years, March has produced EUR/USD gains, losses by USD/JPY, gold, and stocks. It’s a mixed bag.
US Dollar seasonality (via-a-vis the DXY Index) has been negative over the past 5-years (-0.61%), but positive over the past 10-years (+0.09%).
Gold prices typically struggle in March, as evidenced by both the 5-year (-0.4%) and 10-year (-0.67%) performances.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For March, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.