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New artificial intelligence study: Why can t anyone agree on how dangerous AI will be?

New artificial intelligence study: Why can t anyone agree on how dangerous AI will be?
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Philip tetlockRose hadsharAvital morrisJosh rosenbergEzra kargerMolly hickmanHilary putnamZachary jacobsForecasting research institute

Among the A I Doomsayers

Andrew Marantz reports on the debate over artificial intelligence and machine learning, taking in figures and companies including Sam Altman, Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Yann LeCun, ChatGPT, and OpenAI.

West berkeleyUnited statesAlamo squareSan franciscoHayes valleyHarry potterNathan youngWilliam macaskillJosh rosenbergPaul crowleyJoe carlsmithEliezer yudkowskyToby ordMichael nielsenSnoop doggSingularity institute for artificial intelligence

How Not To Predict The Future - 3 Quarks Daily

How Not To Predict The Future - 3 Quarks Daily
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Molly hickmanForecasting research institute

When Might AI Outsmart Us? It Depends Who You Ask

Predicting when artificial intelligence could outsmart humans is a complicated task, and experts disagree on the answer.

United statesNew yorkEzra kargerPhilip tetlockHerbert simonTamay besirogluNick bostromShane leggHans moravecJohn nashRussell croweDario amodeiGoogle deepmindStuart russellMikhail gorbachevHubert dreyfus

Can superforecasters predict whether humanity is going extinct?

A group of experts and "superforecasters" try to estimate the probability humans will go extinct by 2100.

United statesJ zachary mazlishTegan mccaslinAjeya cotraEzra kargerTrevor chowBasil halperinJosh rosenbergBridget williamsTaylor smithRose hadsharToby ordPhilip tetlockZachary jacobsMolly hickmanForecasting research institute