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The Hit Probability of Gonzo’s Little Blooper
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In an ordinary baseball game, a bloop hit is a fun anomaly, a nuisance to the defense. The batter might smirk knowing that he lucked into a hit, while the pitcher stands annoyed, knowing he got the exact contact he wanted and couldn’t get an out.
In 2001, Luis Gonzalez hit what is perhaps the most famous and unordinary bloop hit in MLB history:
With the weak contact of Gonzo’s hit, I have wondered: what was the probability of a batted ball like that landing for a hit? Were the Diamondbacks supremely “lucky,” or do balls like that land for hits every time?