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priority right behind spreading democracy and curbing terrorism. so domestic as well as foreign policy. extraordinary. alexi it s been reported candidates say the toughest questions they are getting from young voters on the trail are around climate change and gun control. how are they addressing it? these are giant problems. back to emily s point we hear the different ways in which certain candidates have talked about these things in an intersectional way especially race and race issues as they relate. it is not just something you look at in a box but something that affects different people who look in different ways. that is how candidates need to be talking about it. some have been. i think the other thing we ve seen especially on the issue of guns is how emotional the candidates have gotten. it was pete buttigieg recently at an event started tearing up when a young person asked him about guns and safety at school. i think those moments of just being a normal, real human when tal
later this month maybe by a quarter or half point. i would agree with austan. the trade war is exacerbating trends that would normally occur at this point of the cycle. the weakness we saw in manufacturing, which grew less in terms of jobs than expected, retail, amazon disruptions and other things aside, also being affected by the tariffs being imposed, yeah. we re going to probably see under 2% growth this year, stephanie. the atlanta federal reserve, their current forecast for this quarter is 1.5%. when you start looking at these averages i ve been talking about it in terms of a growth recession where we grow below trend. that puts a lid on hiring. it may actually result in some job losses over time. particularly going into 2020. it s going to keep the fed pretty defensive irrespective of why the president wants the federal reserve to lower interest rates. they ll have a reason to in the near future. if we weren t in the middle of this trade war would the fed be cutting rates? no
they typically view him positively, i think he is someone who potentially could do well with them. i think even someone like an elizabeth warren who is actually has actually laid out very interesting and unique policy initiatives directly speaking to some of those voters who i would argue are movable voters is someone they may look at as well. going back to something emily said, president trump s biggest thing has been the economy. every other promise that he s made, he hasn t delivered. he has faltered on every single thing. if this one single dynamic changes, i do believe his odds of re-election decrease significantly. we ll soon find out. thank you all so much. really important conversation. next, young voters. they are set to have a much bigger impact on next year s election. you want to know how? by influencing how their parents are going to vote. we ll explain why that is bad news for republicans in 2020 and even beyond. billions of mouths.
in 2010 they really kind of dropped off, but the key to motivating a young person is to show the tangible difference that engagement can make. i think the number one driver of youth participation was the gun issue in 2018. yes. from a statistical modeling point of view. and the success those parkland students had. and they talked about the success. it wasn t it didn t change everything but they made small, incremental changes in talking about that and talking about how one step at a time is going to be important to work inside as well as outside of the system. it s going to be critical to motivating this generation beyond the big, sweeping, structural reforms they want to hear. all right. great conversation. thank you all so much. john, emily, alexi, thank you all. coming up, sweet home alabama. why the president is sticking to his line on the map. we fit a lot of life into our subaru forester. (dad) it s good to be back. (mom) it sure is. (mom vo) over the years, we trusted
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