governor romney has been leading among independents. nationwide virtually every poll governor romney has about been winning against president obama. if he s leading by one point and he s been leading by an average of seven, it shifts the election. again the biggest component here is what does the matrix of the election look like? demographically the obama campaign is counting on white turn out dropping from 74% of the total in 2008 to 72%. as recently as 2004 it was 77% and indications are it s going to be a bigger percentage this time around than last. what is the political matrix? last name around it was 7 or 8 points for democrats depending on which version of the exit polls you looked at. gallup a week ago friday in a footnote at the bottom of its daily tracking poll says we ve looked at all of our polling from october 1 to october 28th and we predict that the election threat will be one point more republican than democrat, which is a 7 or 8 point shift from
will take nevada no, no, i picked mitt romney not to get nevada. martha: with the exception of nevada. yeah. martha: show me the pocket that you believe he wins in mitt romney that people are not expecting that got you to this number. i think if you look at ohio, which everybody has identified as a key target state, the polls have been running just about even in ohio, most of them. those that show obama with a bigger lead also have an election threat that looks more democratic than the 2008 election threat in ohio. i think that is unlikely. early release of the early voting total number of voters shows that they are down 2% in counties that obama that john kerry carried. they are up 14% in counties carried by george w. bush and john mccain. i think the enthusiasm factor likely to produce a narrow romney victory. in pennsylvania which has only been a target state really the last two weeks, western and
uncertain as they are and there s been as much contradicting and conflicting, poll data, other data, polls that look hinky and strange, which has made this thing to a great many analysts bee willed tkerg. martha: i looked at larry sabato s numbers this morning he s at 290 he believes the president will win. michael baron is at 203 on the romney side. he says he s going out on a limb and believes that will happen. somebody is going to be right and somebody is going to be wrong between all of these guys of course on tuesday morning. reporter: what is interesting is that neither of those is for a massive win on either side. we new in 2008 how this was going, it was a matter of how much. we don t know that now. the curious thing is what rile is, who really composes this election torthis election threat? is this an election threat that
this race to 1980 which is pretty close between jimmy carter and ronald reagan and ronald reagan went onto a route. i don t think that is apt. i think president obama did fairly well at the debate this week. romney has the momentum. it could come down to the last week, some type of october surprise. romney has the edge at the moment. jon: it could come down to differences in voting patterns between men and women. jenna was talking about this last hour. men as an election threat have long favored governor romney by several points, but president obama s advantage among women was greater, and there are more female voters. what happened to that advantage? well, that s what democrats are kind of shaking their heads that in the first debate obama didn t court the female vote, and he did certainly this week. so that was a significant change. as a result mitt romney has made gains in that demographic. so that s what they are fighting over. they are fighting over the
be decided which way that 10% swings and you don t swing them by negative, personal attacks and the behavior i saw from both candidates. bill: i m saying i m hearing that president obama did not have a good night. well, i m saying both men, both men did not have a good night, because instead of engaging in respectful debate romney was unlike the first debate where he did a great job in staying above and at a high level, romney crosses the stage, confronts in the face of president obama, the president of the united states. bad. barack obama himself got much too negative and personal. i think both of them ignored that i agree that slice of the election threat i disagree. i think romney was extremely strong last night. he hit a lot of important points on energy policies on workplace regulation, on healthcare. this was the time to confront the president and say that we have two dave convenient visions for the future of america, yours has failed and i have a different direction