will take nevada -- >> no, no, i picked mitt romney not to get nevada. martha: with the exception of nevada. >> yeah. martha: show me the pocket that you believe he wins in mitt romney that people are not expecting that got you to this number. >> i think if you look at ohio, which everybody has identified as a key target state, the polls have been running just about even in ohio, most of them. those that show obama with a bigger lead also have an election threat that looks more democratic than the 2008 election threat in ohio. i think that is unlikely. early release of the early voting total number of voters shows that they are down 2% in counties that obama -- that john kerry carried. they are up 14% in counties carried by george w. bush and john mccain. i think the enthusiasm factor likely to produce a narrow romney victory. in pennsylvania which has only been a target state really the last two weeks, western and