after his own government said the opposite. undercutting his administration again. no signs of intention on countering the russian threat. joining me now is adam elevelev. legal analyst, paul butler and scholar of authoritarian state and author of view from flyover country. dispatches from the forgotten america. everyone is with me as i pop in my chair. let s start with you adam on the question of the election threat. we saw this press conference. everybody seemed to tune in. giving aide and comfort to the
pelosi had to say in recent days? she basically said if you want to win the white house again you ll pass it. reporter: i ve heard that. i ve read all kinds of analysis of this. i ve been fascinated by what happened on election day 2012. i almost absolutely convinced, that if thing of if the republicans don t go for immigration reform much as the senate has done, they ll never win another presidential election. baloney. if you look at the statistics there was one significant block of voters who turned out in smaller numbers this time and in a major way, way below expectations, below even their 08 turn out and that was white voters. it doesn t mean if they turned out that romney would have gotten then all. it shows you that this hispanic which is 8.5 of the election threat or something like that is not nearly as important still as the white vote, which is above 70%. so if you look at it from an
electorial votes in my final map. i don t know too many who had 332 which would include florida. bill: florida hasn t been called just yet. are you suggesting that this lead holds up for the president, he gets 29 electorial votes? i do. i believe it s going to hold up. if it doesn t it becomes the i4 corridor and hispanics again. cuban-americans went for mitt romney. hispanics went for the president i big. overall in our exit polling hispanics are 10% of the election threat in 2012. what does this tell you? it s again the changing demographics of the country, changing demographics of florida. in virginia the same thing. i mean big demographic changes in the northern part of the state. he promised immigration reform an did not happen and he got a larger percentage of the hispanic vote in 2012 than
it. if it goes reddit will tell us something about the election threat. bill: watch 7:30, that s when chicago closes. megyn: what is this kaj a hoag georgia county. why does anybody care? people in new york don t care. bill: i will tell you later. check out america live 1:00 eastern time. later tonight with megyn and bret will ann our prime-time coverage. i ll be at the board. martha will be crunching numbers. we ll have a big old time. these are the days you live for when you re in this business. this is the super bowl for us. martha: i m so excited i can barely speak, it s very exciting today. and we re going to be all over it. coverage gets started at 6:00pm. let s talk about this. where should we go right now? how about des moines, iowa, they kicked off this election and very well could end it. seven electoral votes up for tkpwra bs in iowa. they have got even a ton of attention, including the president last night. during a visit there he laid out what he thinks is at stake in
no one truly knows. and b, depending on your partisan ideology you think one way or the other. the people who lean right, they ll tell you i really think romney will win, and on the left, i really think obama will win. and what i have gleaned is that no one knows. the polls in a swing states show a slight advantage for president obama. and the gallup poll and rasmussen poll who looked act the entire election threat and said is it a plus democratic election threat or a republican election threat. they concluded that it s a republican election threat, that it leans republican slightly but republican. much more so than four years ago. what is it now in 2012? is it plus 7dem still or is it plus 3r, plus 3 republican?