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the right tone. what about inflation, because the fed has to give this economy medicine you know what may kill the patient. question is can you get the right balance? and when you have the raise of three quarters of a percentage point last week followed by another one just as big, we saw federal reserve governor christopher waller say saturday he would back another interest rate hike of three quarters of a point, how do you know, when we will know if the fed has killed the patient or not? well, officially there is a group called the nber business cycle dating committee, which is a bunch of economists who decide when the economy has turned or not. and they usually do it long after the fact. so they are the arbiters of this thing. but there are other maybe actual turning of the economy into a recession or recovery. but there are other indicators that we can follow. we should look at the job market, consumer sentiment, we should look at gdp growth, investment data, things like that.

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