Most governments are treading carefully, trying to prevent the conflict from spilling over the borders, The feared internationalisation of the fight between the forces of Generals Abdel Fattah al Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo Hemeti is contingent on how long it lasts and its outcome in Khartoum. Reports are swirling about outside military supplies but the scale and content of this support isn t so far proving decisive in the fighting. Most regional governments are monitoring rather than acting. If the war drags on for months, that could change.
Having fought as allies during the war with Tigray, federal forces are now clashing with Amhara nationalists, Growing local suspicions of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed s ties with Tigray and Oromo nationalists have coalesced into a mutiny against the federal government s efforts to rein in the Amhara region s paramilitary forces.
Closer ties between Addis Ababa and Khartoum sideline Cairo s position on the Nile dam, Egypt, a key player in the Nile Basin, is watching with alarm as the recent rapprochement between Sudan and Ethiopia undercuts its leverage over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).This shift coincides with mounting economic and political pressure on Egypt s President Abdel Fattah el Sisi.
After the peace accord with Tigray, rivalries between the biggest regional blocs in the ruling party trigger more turmoil, So far, the peace agreement between the federal government and the Tigray People s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Pretoria on 2 November has stopped the fighting in a war that had directly and indirectly killed hundreds of thousands of people. But the country s fierce regional tensions are far from resolved as clashes between militia fighters and government forces in Oromia have intensified this year, reflecting deepening fissures within the ruling Prosperity Party (PP).