Intensifying competition between the US, Russia, China and the Gulf states boosts the strategic importance of Somaliland s port, Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi s trip to Washington DC last month may not have resulted in an exchange of ambassadors, but it looks as though the statelet will achieve de facto recognition, recalling the dual-track policy of the Barack Obama administration in 2010. Under that policy, more stable regions of Somalia achieved equal footing, in the United States eyes, with the federal government in Mogadishu.
Working with Ethiopia and Kenya, China s envoy Xue Bing promises to send engineers and scientists, not arms, China is to step up and diversify its regional role in the Horn and East Africa by organising a peace conference this year to be jointly hosted by Kenya and Ethiopia, the two biggest economies in the region. Both countries have racked up billions of dollars of debt to China that is now proving problematic.
A one-sided dialogue is unlikely to deliver peace as Prime Minister Abiy pushes for total victory, Both sides in the war between federal and Tigrayan forces will condition their willingness to negotiate on the military situation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed starts the year having seized the initiative through extensive use of Chinese, Turkish and Iranian drones, and sees no need to be conciliatory.
Gulf states are reviewing their alliances while Farmajo seeks salvation in Addis Ababa and Al Shabaab suffers unexpected reverses, President Mohamed Abdullah Mohamed Farmajo flew to Addis Ababa on 3 October to attend the swearing-in of Abiy Ahmed as prime minister for another five years, hoping that the Ethiopian leader could help him with his domestic problems, sources in Mogadishu told Africa Confidential.
Inaugurated in front of regional leaders, the Prime Minster has shuffled his cabinet and launched a massive new offensive in Tigray, Signs decorated with flowers and reading A New Beginning in readiness for Abiy Ahmed s grand inauguration in Addis Ababa on 4 October held little reality even for his most determined supporters.