Split in the dots. Differenceshonest of opinion and how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. Parts of hand, certain growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. Capex spending is going down. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. Joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. Priya,egin with you, your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before years end . Priya we are looking for another rate cut in october. In someis putting insurance cuts. Our view is the consumer will show signs of stress, so we see the fed Cutting Three more times next year. I think relative to where they were in july come in july, chair powell said midcycle adjustment. We are cutting down but we may take it back. I think that was a communication mistake. When i heard this week is we dont know, we are still in the process of running
There is a little bit of a split in the dots. They are honest differences of opinion and how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. On one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. The economy is doing well viewed well. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. Capex spending is going down. The fed was too tight. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. Want to see more cuts by the fed. Jonathan joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. Lets begin with you, priya, your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before years end . Priya we are looking for another rate cut in october. The fed is putting in some insurance cuts. Our view is the consumer will show signs of stress, so we see the fed Cutting Three more times next year. I dont think the fed is being that hawkish. I think relative to where they were in july come in j
A fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. There is a lot of dissension in the ranks. A division 73. I am surprised bullard went as far as to dissent. There is a little bit of a split in the dots. There are honest differences of opinion in how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. On one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have the trade war, geopolitical risks. Manufacturing is slowing down. Capex spending lower. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. They want to see more cuts by the fed. Jonathan joining me here in new york city, priya misra of td securities. Diana amoa of jpmorgan, and krishna memani. Of invesco. Lets begin with you, priya. Your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before years end . Priya we are looking for another rate cut in october. We have been looking for 75 basis cuts this year. The fed is putting in some insura
Negative situation when the trading day gets underway. That is a long way off for the moment. Nikkei feeling it. The hang seng, lower. Shanghai feeling that down drop. Lets get to those moving parts. The u. S. 30 year treasuries, levels we have never seen before. 1. 9. The whole curve is below two into the u. S. We have stronger than expected fors fixed gain. Is the message still continually one where we are seeing them sending this message out that the yuan is not a oneway bet . 11 days of declining. The new Zealand Dollar on track to go down to 62 u. S. Cents. Confidence to come out earlier on in 11 years. We will be hearing what is going on. We will be talking to this San Francisco fed president mary daily later on. U. S. Dollar against the pound, here we go, we have the have the last headline. We will have five weeks of that parliamentary debate. Some are saying they are trying to stifle a deal on brexit. Effect, thees in most viable option, i guess the most embedded on option righ
Would expect at this late cycle. Fears about a u. S. Recession are just not showing up in this report at all. Very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. You got higher wages and hours trending up. The labor market is holding in. We were worried about manufacturing hours worked and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. The jury is out in the manufacturing sector. Uncertainty is enormous on many fronts. Maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. The question is where it goes the uncertainty goes from here. Jonathan joining me around the table, my guests. For me, the biggest problem with , it doesnt report i change what you sour carless of what you thought going into the payrolls report, not a game changer, is it . It is basically confirming status quote for the fed. Theyre on track to cut 25 basis points at the september meeting. The real question for me this morning, if it turns out to be weak after the manufacturing data earlier