Split in the dots. Differenceshonest of opinion and how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. Parts of hand, certain growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. Capex spending is going down. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. Joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. Priya,egin with you, your thoughts on the potential of another rate cut before years end . Priya we are looking for another rate cut in october. In someis putting insurance cuts. Our view is the consumer will show signs of stress, so we see the fed Cutting Three more times next year. I think relative to where they were in july come in july, chair powell said midcycle adjustment. We are cutting down but we may take it back. I think that was a communication mistake. When i heard this week is we dont know, we are still in the process of running this midcycle adjustment and noticed he didnt use the word midcycle adjustment. But he has gotten more of the committee into this insurance camp. I am looking at the seven dots that has one more cut penciled in. I think the fed is trying to retain optionality. Richard clarida today said meeting by meeting, but one more cut as part of this midcycle adjustment insurance preemptive risk management, these are all the terms to be saying, the data is not bad but the Downside Risks are high enough. I think they are trying to be noncommittal rather than hawkish. Jonathan i think the chairman did a really good communication effort, when it is difficult to find a central view of a divided fed. That canem, diana, is indication was hijacked by the dot plot. How much should you read into the dispersion among policymakers . Diana first of all, the dot plots are an assessment of where the policymakers think the policy should be given the economic framework. It is not a projection of the direction of rates. Of chairman did a good job giving himself enough wiggle room, so if things deteriorate, they will be able to act. This over focus on the dots removes the fact that he has opened up the door, similar to what mario draghi did. If things to tear it, we will be moving up. We expect more slowdowns to come through from china and the rest of the world. That isclearly a fed central bank to the world, and that will impact financial conditions outside. They will be forced to cut once, maybe twice again this year. Jonathan the other problem is that every dot is a policy maker, some of them have a vote, and others are more important than others. Krishna the one thing i have learned about the dot plots over the last two years is to ignore them. They dont tell you anything. Plot isthe dot something that has to be put in the dustbin of history. It was valuable at one point. It is absolutely meaningless today. Having said that, what the dot plot is telling you is there is detention dissension. When the fed tighten policy in 2018, almost a mistake. Now they are unwinding. That dissension is to be expected. At least it is not as bad as the ecb, where you dont even need to take a vote. Is to be expected, but there is enough of a majority within the committee for us to have a few more rate cuts for this cycle easing cycle is over. Jonathan several transmission mechanisms to reach the real economy, one is comedic asian. Putting on your communication and reaching the end consumer, market or discipline, whoever. I just wonder whether the dissent is complicating that effort. To what degree is that true . Krishna it certainly is true, but powell did a masterful job in the press conference. The midcycle adjustment was all about highlighting that dissension. Dodging the issue altogether, keeping the feds optionality shows the maturation that he is going through. Fantastic. We need a fed like that, rather than putting everything out on the table. Things are uncertain. Having netflix ability is important. Jonathan there is an argument that 25 was not enough, they should have gone harder. They should have been emphasizing through the future that more rate cuts are coming. When you look at the yield curve, 2 10, it flattened. What is the argument that they are not doing enough quickly enough, or is it just people questioning Monetary Policy . I think it is the latter. We realize this is not an Interest Rate problem. Ther powell said that in july press conference, which i struggled with. You have the fed chair saying this is not an Interest Rate problem, so how my solving this . By cutting Interest Rates. Even if they had gone 50, the car would have flattened. They are a little bit stuck here. All they can say is clarified the reaction function. If the economy weakens more, we are ready to do more, ready to do what it takes, ready to go to zero as it purchases. Part of the curve flattening was also nervousness around the repo market. They expected a permanent fix from the fed. It is hard for them within two days for the fed to come out and say we are about to make massive change. There was disappointment there. The fact that breakevens are declining and really look at since the first rate cut, Inflation Expectations have declined. Is the market telling the fed that Interest Rate cuts will not solve this problem . Jonathan we will spend some time focusing on the repo is true. Diana, focus on the rates market. This week, pretty much every day, yields grinding a little bit lower. Is there an argument to make, keep nibbling away on that backup whenever you get one. Diana that is the argument. This is an attractive entrylevel for people who want to add duration. From they, the gravity rest of the world on the back end is too high. You have negative yielding debt elsewhere in the world, and this view is entrenched. In europe, the focus to turn rates negative is not until five years down the road. Additionally, from the fed point of view and i agree with you about inflation being a concern for them their statement of Economic Projections has core pce heading to 2 in 2021. As a policy maker, im sure they are very concerned about that. It would put a lot more weight toward, if they cannot change this narrative to resteepen the curve, maybe qe at some point, to get more animal spirits, then the weight of gravity for rates and from our point of view, is lower. There is an argument to be made for rates to go lower, but that would be the wrong argument. Day, thed of the driver of that really is going to be the state of the economy, the state of the u. S. Economy, for more than europe. The rally so far had been driven by the fact that the u. S. Growth was moderating and pressures overseas were significant. Data stabilized. Data may strengthen in the back half. Half, the back cap and maybe if we reach a trade deal, then 2020, for sure. 2 is much more likely for 10year, than 1. 5 . Jonathan to what extent does that hinge on a trade deal . The president saying he is looking for a complete deal, not a partial deal. Krishna actually he is not. The underlining day data is improving and stabilizing. If that continues to be the trend for 6, 12 months, i think rates are going higher rather than lower. Jonathan is it improving or improving just relative to expectations . If you look at my bloomberg but a quickcated snapshot of where we are relative to expectations. If you compare this to where we were couple of months ago, completely different. Even just a couple of months ago. A lot of that was pointing down negatively. Krishna, is it about a positive upside surprise or an inflection in the trend of the data that we see the improvement . Krishna data is not strengthening. It is basically stabilizing and improving relative to expectations that are built into the market. If we are going to have to percent sustainable growth, i cannot have an argument as to why tenyear rates have to be at 1 . I dont care where they are in europe because we are domestic economies. Changeat standpoint, the in actual results relative to expectation, that is the driver for the backup we have seen so far. Completely agree with krishna here, its about the u. S. Economy. Where i disagree, if the economy is strong right now, is it because of residual momentum from the fiscal stimulus . The fact that Global Growth lowereds to fall, oecd their growth forecast for next year. At some point, the business sector that is already cutting, do they start expecting higher . If growth does not moderate, 10s can go up up to 2 . Jonathan everyone around the table is sticking with me. U. S. Junk bonds heading for a fifth straight weekly gain. That conversation is coming up next. Is is bloomberg real yield im Jonathan Ferro this is bloomberg real yield. We want to go to the Auction Block in europe where weekly sales are breaking 50 billion euros for only the fourth time in 2019. Here in the u. S. , the highgrade Corporate Market posting 20 billion in sales. That slowedjunk after the busiest week in more than two years. Elsewhere, the majority of loans being probably wellreceived. Sticking with a highyield credit market, some strong words, seeing many signs of froth. The most recent sign in addition to the pickup in issuance, but when you see deals, that sort of starts to make the hair on the back of my neck stand up a touch. We also see things like the spread between double bees or sees widening. One of the reason you see that late cycle as credit deteriorates, the Weaker Companies suffer weaker credit deterioration before some of the higher rated companies. Table withround the me is priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. Spread some come in, we are at the tightest, almost for the year. He and yields. F your thoughts and where we are at the moment . Krishna the argument for highyield being expensive is very easy to make. Yield levels are low, spread levels are tight. Highyield is not cheap by any measure. Income, there are very few choices that most investors have. If you look at the flows, they are speaking with their dollars, putting money into Investment Grade debt, fixed income, rather than equities, because they think it is better value. The key point with respect to valuations is, you use valuations to arrive at how much risk you want to take, rather than what risk you want to take. History, if you went by valuations to make judgments about any market, that has gone to a wrong answer far more than the right answer. Priya i would say this is an environment of hedging. Im concerned about the economy. I dont know if i would be in highyield. I am not a credit analyst, but this would be a time to do active management. Also liquidity. I will keep highlighting that i think credit market liquidity is not what it was many years ago. I would argue owning treasuries as a hedge. That will give you protection against any weakness in the economic data, or any liquidity event. Choice set is always as follows to get that income, take more ration risk, or sacrifice liquidity. What is the precedent for you, diana . Diana given what we have seen in various pockets of the market, liquidity has to be a big consideration. We are of the similar view that we are in the late cycle of the economic expansion. With that in mind, you dont want to be piling into highheeled. Up in quality, going into quality government duration, rather than buying highyield. Jonathan where does e. M. Fall into the calculus . Diana on the one hand, you have governments cutting rates, but you have to be selective. You have better quality names where policy is supportive, which would support some local markets. We have seen a strong duration rally in yield local. Central banks have been cutting. Within sovereign space, credit, there is value in going up. Those spreads are similar to what you see elsewhere, but there is still value to be had going up the credit spectrum, because of that income bid. Jonathan the long dated credit has had a massive year through 2019. There is an index here at bloomberg which captures the long dated names within gainsate credit, and north of 20 in 2019. Is there any incentive to go further out along the curve for these corporate names . Have thatp enough to incentive, i will take the longer dated corporate paper . I dont think so. If people are buying long bonds, it is for the hedging purposes, rather than for the purpose that it represents tremendous value. A diversified portfolio, where you can own a lot of things, if i wanted longduration exposure, i would probably buy treasuries rather than Corporate Bonds because the risk is significant higher. Having said that, e. M. Is an interesting space at the moment. Buy e. M. , youu have to have a view on which way the trade stuff is blowing. That can have a meaningful impact on currencies. That can take away all the returns. We have a positive view, we dont think things get exacerbated a lot, therefore, one ofal rates represent the better values in fixed income. Priya i would say parts of e. M. Can make sense, but if the dollar remains strong, that is our biggest fear. If the u. S. Is still outperforming on a Global Growth standpoint, the dollar will continue to strengthen. That will be a headwind for e. M. Owning some e. M. And tenyear treasuries. I think it is a good hedge even against e. M. You are getting yield but you need something to hedge. Jonathan diana, it is your world, e. M. I will give you the final world. Diana i like owning em risk, and owning some duration against it. I will give you the final world. If you have that trade on, you have been making a killing on both sides. If we dont get a resolution on trade, that government duration will protect you. Jonathan coming up, the week ahead featuring a slew of economic data, and another big week of feta speak. That is next. Fed speak. This is bloomberg real yield. Jonathan im Jonathan Ferro this is bloomberg real yield. On monday, we get u. S. And eurozone emi for the month of september. Fed members speaking throughout the week. Tuesday, u. S. Consumer confidence numbers and german data. Finally on friday, u. S. Personal income and spending numbers. With me around the table still is priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani. You have been talking about this for 12 months. The issues that we see this week in the repo market, and you are not putting it down to corporate pulling money from market money funds, you have been talking about this for a while. It comes down to reserves. Important . O it is a problem that needs addressing now. Priya its a question of reserve scarcity. It is really the distribution of reserves. Until number of excess reserves in the system is about 1. 3 trillion. The fed has been saying perhaps 9 billion is enough. Therefore we are in an excess reserve regime, and reserves have been falling for quite some time. Most of it was because the fed was leading the portfolio runoff. Even if they stop that, it will continue to fall because currency circulation continues to grow. Because of the regulatory environment, which has changed in the last five years, even though the total amount of reserves are ok, the interbank trading is not happening. There is a massive difference tween the haves and havenots when it comes to bank reserves. I would argue that any time you get any small dislocation around supply demand for reserves, you will get these outside spikes in repo. We saw this at yearend, in april around the tax date. We are seeing it again. Muchnk the fed has reacted faster than people expected. I am very pleased that they have addressed the quarter and issue already. Every day my Blood Pressure would rise between 2 00 and 4 00 because we would see if the fed would do another overnight operation. They have said they would be doing these, they are doing a term operation. I really hope they address the structural issue, which we think they will. In october, we think they will come in and start buying assets. It is like huey, but it is what they need to do to prevent reserves from declining. That means the market will come in and buy treasuries. Jonathan tbills or throughout the whole curve . Priya they are buying across the curve are now, so why money the waters . Make that 45 billion a month. They have to clarify this is not because of the economy but they dont want financial conditions to tighten. Jonathan you have done a fantastic job flagging this over the last year. I want to wrap this program up the way we always do with the rapidfire round. Through to year end, you have to hold one asset class. U. S. Highyield or e. M. . Krishna e. M. Diana e. M. Priya neither, but if i had to, e. M. Jonathan one markup this year by the fed or are they done . Diana one more, possibly two. Krishna two. Priya one or two. Jonathan is the repo rate a problem of last week or months to come . Krishna last week. Jonathan great to catch up with all of you. That does it for all of us in new york city. This was bloomberg real yield. Tv. Is Bloomberg Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. President trump says he has an amazing relationship with chinese president xi jinping but that right now they are spat. A little a completeooking for deal, im not looking for a partial deal. China has been sorry to buy our agricultural product, if you have noticed over the last week, and some big purchases, but that is not what im looking for. We are looking for the big deal. Mark u. S. And chinese officials held talks in washington this week with the aim of setting up highlevel talks in october. The president delayed a tariff increase scheduled for october 1 on 250 billion in chinese goods in what he called a gesture of goodwill. Are suingts states the Trump Administration from roving californias authority to set standards on omissions. The state says it has had the
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