Well, what should we start with today? How about how California and Texas ranked highest on the United States Postal Service’s annual list of states with the most dog bites against its employees? Or how ‘bout Freedom Mortgage Corporation filing a notice of data breach after learning that confidential consumer data entrusted to the company was subject to unauthorized access, the result of a cybersecurity incident at one of the company’s vendors, Mortgage Industry Advisory Corporation (“MIAC”)? Data is critical in so many things, whether it is closing a branch, not caring if an LO heads to another company, or in determining that people can save money by buying books at Amazon instead of the local book shop. Along those lines, Saturday’s Commentary, noting the CFPB’s use of its funding to determine that different companies charge different prices, received, as you can imagine, a lot of responses. Think residential lenders have too many regu
For me, yesterday involved a trip from Connecticut to Northern California, with talk of a lack of inventory, relatively high mortgage rates, and loan level price adjustments still echoing in my head from the CMBA conference. There isn’t much one can do about rates or homes for sale, but one can always let the FHFA know what you think about pricing. Meanwhile, lenders are doing what they can to help borrowers. Credit unions, for example, are being creative. Last year, per Zillow, about 45 percent of mortgage borrowers around the nation used points to buy down the mortgage rate. LOs are watching demographic trends. America was once extremely mobile, with people often moving between states for work. From 1986 to 1997, 29 percent of job seekers relocated for a new position, a figure that fell to 17.8 percent over the period from 1998 to 2007 and seemed to crater out during the pandemic at just 4.1 percent in 2021. In the first quarter of 2023 just 1.6 percent of people relocated to
“Rob, earlier this week you posted some ‘units funded’ information from the MBA showing a dramatic decline from a few years ago. Dollar-wise, certainly we’re nowhere near the $4+ trillion funded in 2021. What are some of the other MBA thoughts about 2023 and beyond?” Wise economists will tell you, “If you’re going to put a number on it, don’t put a date on it, and if you’re going to put a date on it, don’t put a number on it.” That said, for total originations of 1-4 unit mortgages, the MBA expects 2022 to clock in at $2.2 trillion, 2023 at $1.8 trillion, and then move higher in 2024 to $2.3 trillion. The MBA also is predicting that mortgage debt outstanding (1-4 family) will be somewhat steady at $13.4-$13.8 trillion, especially given all those 30-year fixed rate mortgages at less than 3.5 percent, but for 30-year interest rates to drop to near 5.50 percent range by year end as the U.S. economy slows som