hampshire and then they go nevada, south carolina in the first four contests are about the field. changing the field. the national polls change overnight. the winner rockets off. the loser is in trouble. this is the challenge for joe biden. this is why we ask if he is a fragile front runner. check out the latest polling we have the cbs gov have in iowa. biden is leading right now. his margin just three points. single digit deficit there down to elizabeth warren. you have three candidates popping in the double digits. think of the electricity in iowa more activists, more liberal. the types of candidates who have done well there before. sanders warren can pose a challenge. there in iowa. think about that. if a warren or a sanders knocked off biden in iowa, normally the winner gets the bounce, i say. normally the loser has issues there in the polling. think about that eight-day gap and what comes next, new hampshire. who are next door neighbors? elizabeth warren. massachusetts senator. bo
usual this week, i believe on 9/11. that s another story for another day. but she is of that top tier, other than mayor pete buttigieg, and she is ahead of him, she is the least known nationally. if you look at the size of her crowd on the day she announced in oakland where she is from, she had 20,000 people there. so where she is known, she really does support build support and enthusiasm. so i take her point, and i ve been part of spinning polls. that s not spin. she really is in a different position than the better known democratic candidates in that top tier. hoping for a firewall in south carolina. well, firewall in south carolina. if she could finish respectably in iowa, that would be a big help. i really think she needs to spend time. if iowa doesn t do well and new hampshire, the field is wide open for not biden. and i really am convinced that not biden will be a woman. i can tell you, black women will think about her very differently
bernie sanders, vermont. next door neighbor got 61% in the 2016 primary. in new hampshire. the prospect exists. the polling in new hampshire. one point here in the poll. warren, biden, sanders. so the issue there is if you are biden and don t win iowa and lose it to sanders. or lose is to warren, you are in danger of going 0 for 2. with the exception of bill clinton in 92, that s a big exception. because iowa didn t really count that year, no democratic nominee has ever gotten the nomination without winning one of the first two. continue that, nevada also not a guarantee. back to you, brian. all right. steve you know what happens, then your older african-american voters are watching. there is not a lot of trust among a lot of african-americans. they re waiting to see who wins the two states. if biden loses one of those, that support is paper thin. we have chris matthews standing by. you had a physical reaction to steve kornacki s question.
for you and you cannot have insurance at work? i think as this goes along, bernie and elizabeth are going to have problems because there is a whole lot of americans out there in both parties that want to hear that their government trusts them to make a choice. absolutely. steve kornacki, as promised, a little something about joe biden the front runner. yeah we just thought we d take a look, biden of course entered tonight as the leader, likely still will be when the polling comes out we ll 150e. we re asking is he a frontrunner, is he a fragile front runner? his national poll numbers, he s a leader in the high 20s, maybe low 30s. the other big challenge we re seeing has to do with the calendar. remember there s four stand alone contests. they start in iowa, quick turnaround between iowa, new
you did set the key note tonight i thought with your correcting of the focus of the night morally on trump. that is what the why did you decide to do that instead of debating your opponents about who has this and that to say trump is the bad guy? because he is. that s why i m in the race. that s why everyone on the stage i believe is in the race. there is so much that has yet in this campaign to be explored, to discuss, analyzed and really articulated about just all of the details of the failures of the trump administration. there is so much there, chris. you know, part of the frustration that i hear when i m out on the road, be it in iowa or nevada or california or michigan is that people know that there is so much wrong that is happening with this