Today is 101223. Of course you know, by looking ahead to the last day of 2023, that it will be 123123. By then, how many times do you think you’ll hear, “Due to a strategic decision, we’ve decided to…”? Those lenders looking at volumes for the next several months may be wary or even frightened. As if volumes aren’t scary enough, there are only 19 days until Halloween! Where are you going to be trick-or-treating this year? There are some good candidates out there that my cat Myrtle may fly into on her broomstick: Tombstone (AZ), Slaughter Town (LA), and Seven Devils Town (NC) are at the top of her list. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that there are roughly 128.5 million occupied U.S. housing units that could be potential stops for trick-or-treaters. If you're at one of those and are expecting trick-or-treaters, there are 3,227 U.S. confectionery and nut stores and 726 U.S. formal wear and costume rental establishments. (Today’s po
“My dog is really worried about the rising price of groceries, with a can of dog food now costing $3. That’s $21 in dog money.” As I travel and speak with originators, besides the regulatory environment being a concern (the latest example being the CFPB suing Freedom Mortgage yesterday), the cost to produce a loan is still a problem, and for some it is about to worsen. The last MBA’s study calculated that total loan production expenses (commissions, compensation, occupancy, equipment, and other production expenses and corporate allocations) were $11k per loan in the second quarter. Talk of another round of credit cost changes swirl, good and bad, similar to the end of last year, prompted by Fair Issac and rippling through the bureaus and CRAs. (Any questions should be addressed to your credit provider.) (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s is sponsored by NotaryCam, your partner for The Perfect Close! Ease of use, additional closing
“I dance like people wish they weren't watching.” Someone sure is watching, and counting, empty houses. Lack of available housing inventory has helped keep housing costs high throughout many of the nation’s big cities, but nearly 5.5 million homes sit vacant across the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. The average vacancy rate across these 50 metros is 7.22 percent, with New Orleans (13.9 percent), Miami (12.7 percent), and Tampa (12.2 percent) having the highest vacancy rates. Vacancy rates are lowest in Minneapolis, Austin, and Washington, D.C., the only metros in the study with vacancy rates below 5 percent. Just because an area has a high vacancy rate doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s something wrong with its housing market. Roughly one-quarter of vacancies are due to being empty for rent, one-fifth because they're only used part time, and one-twelfth because they're being repaired or renovated. (Today
National MI turned heads yesterday by announcing its temporary increase to AUS conforming loan amounts, despite the official FHFA word not coming until the end of November. (More below on the amounts.) Our biz is filled with “numbers people,” good or bad. According to Curinos, September 2023 funded mortgage volume decreased 30 percent YoY and 14 percent MoM. The average 30-year conforming retail funded rate in September was 7.01 percent, 18bps higher than August and 146bps higher than the same month last year. (Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures.) Inventory and sales aren’t helping. Economist Dr. Elliot Eisenberg summed things up. “August data showed MoM housing starts down 11.3 percent to their lowest level since 6/20, the NAHB housing index down sharply M-o-M for the second month in a row, and new home sales weakening 8.7 percent MoM, the biggest decline since 9/22. Existing housing
Hal M. writes, “Monday is a holiday. The observance reminded me of the small Italian parade we had in Maine on Columbus Day. All the marchers were under 5 foot 4.” Bah dah bum. Clients come in all shapes and sizes. An experienced loan originator will tell you, “Never tell a client about a problem until you’ve solved it.” An originator will also, when talking to a client, show them that their timing matters more than market timing. Put another way, home price appreciation is earned by buying a place and holding it, rather than timing the purchase based on interest rates. Roughly speaking, there are 4.8 million real estate sales in a given year, and 3.6 million of them will have a loan. Figure about 1.3 million refinances, which gives us a total of about 4.9 million mortgage transactions. These include debt consolidation refinances, moving out of 3 percent loans but paying off 30 percent credit card debt with a 7.5 percent loan. Originators are telling