“We peg the GDP growth for the just-concluded quarter at 2%, suggesting that the double-dip recession implied for Q4 FY2021 by the NSOs second advance estimates for FY2021, was averted,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. GDP grew 0.4% in the December quarter.
“Business sentiment remained weak and is going to fall further in the first quarter of FY22. The six major cities of New Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai and Kolkata are very badly affected,” said Bornali Bhandari, a senior fellow at the National Council of Applied Economic Research.
Synopsis
To be sure, the economy will still show a sharp rebound in the first quarter and the full FY22 financial year because of the low base due to the nationwide lockdown last year, but a return to pre-pandemic levels will take longer because of the latest disruptions, experts said.
Agencies
HDFC Bank is likely to revise its FY22 growth projection to 10% from 11% currently and its first-quarter forecast to 18-20% from 23% projected earlier.
The curbs announced by Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh along with restrictions imposed in other states will dent India’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2-1 percentage point, according to an ET poll of economists.
Economists say FY22 GDP may take 0.2-1% hit
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Synopsis
To be sure, the economy will still show a sharp rebound in the first quarter and the full FY22 financial year because of the low base due to the nationwide lockdown last year, but a return to pre-pandemic levels will take longer because of the latest disruptions, experts said.
Agencies
HDFC Bank is likely to revise its FY22 growth projection to 10% from 11% currently and its first-quarter forecast to 18-20% from 23% projected earlier.
The curbs announced by Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh along with restrictions imposed in other states will dent India’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2-1 percentage point, according to an ET poll of economists.
India s quarterly GDP contraction to end in December quarter: NCAER
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The think tank pared its forecast of gross domestic product (GDP) growth during the ongoing fiscal to -7.3% compared to -12.6% in September to account for the “welcome surprise” of a sharp moderation in contraction in the second quarter at -7.5%, according to its mid-year review of the economy, presented virtually on Monday.
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However, a flattening in the pace of growth of several economic indicators in the December quarter have called into question the sustainability of the recovery, according to the NCAER.
The quarterly contraction in India’s growth in the ongoing fiscal is set to end in the third quarter with a marginally positive 0.1% growth, according to the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER).