Money for go burn them max weve talked about the cantillon effect for the past few years here and thats when money printer anybody close to the money printer they get it 1st the oligarchs the cup the kratz the caca stock or c. They get the money 1st they get all the benefits of 0 percent Interest Rates and the further away from the bunny printer you go the more income bird with debt and grotesque nesting toxicity of all the fraud that went before it so were seeing this unfold around the world but i do want to make some notes about the set we have a palm tree now in the background because we are you know feeling like summer is coming on and that might be some sort of hope in the future about this cove in 1000 global lock down we have a fine as an investment handbook here that we will need in a few moments to explain negative. Rates are negative prices on options but i do want to also say hi to juan one tanya because our latin american audience our. Version of kaiser report is like rocke
Dow. Stocks are having a nice bounce on some renewed optimistic about reopening the economy in various states of the nasdaq closing in on going flat for the year oil is up on signs of gas repairing. A general believe in a Third Quarter rebound has some exists warning too much optimism too early. For that we will turn to steve lease man. Carl, good morning. The rapid update does indeed show this historic, unprecedented Second Quarter decline. A Third Quarter rebound. And i want to talk about that. The Third Quarter rebound is even more ingrained. Stocks trade on this idea after we get through the Second Quarter, you will have a Third Quarter rebound. Down 34 after minus 6 . Up 16 in the third. Up 12 in the fourth 7 in the first quarter. Not enough to make up for the year where the average of our 11 economists is 5 decline but take a look now at a bunch of outliars. They are contrarians on the street on this Third Quarter rebound. The q3 rebound bears bank of america, minus 1 . Rsm up ju
Today. Lets go to the boards were not at the best levels of the day. Nonethele nonetheless, were hoelding onto pretty good dangains. The dow is up. Nasdaq has some profit taking today. Its been the big winner apple and microsoft and amazon giving a bit back along with some of the other names as well. Pete, im going to come to you first. Youre the one who had more stocks than you had in a long time where do you see things now . Friday have generally not been great because no one want toed go into the weekend feeling long then you had the gilead news last night you have boeing starting next week you have more plans to reopen even in a slow fashion where does this lead us as we head into the weekend . I think people want know how they should be positioned thinking about what could happen next week. Its nice to have a light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak, or something. Some sort of light thats what we got out of gilead last night we had move last night long before this morning. We w
Were not seeing that, but im looking at tech stocks we are seeing still dramatic moves, pintrest up about 10 shop fie up about five the market faded gains yesterday in the 10 00 hour bounced back by 11 00 and close we were about flat you never know which way that is going to go, right, morgan thats true, jon. We have averages up about 20 off the march 23rd lows. One of the questions being debated on wall street right now is are equities ahead of reality . The focus has been for investors for the market the curve of the virus. We are seeing some of the hopeful signs thats maybe flattening in the hot spots like new york, new jersey, some of the other areas that have been epicenters here in the u. S at some point in the coming days, hopefully based on the models well get past that projected peak and i think the question shifts to what does the medium and long term impact of covid19 look like on the economy and also what thats going to mean in terms of a rewriting on earnings, which were f
Done here you see the home builders, weve had a terrific rally in the builders in the last few days but hovnanian was 29 just a month ago. Its a 9 stock right now. Yes, weve had a great rally, but bear in mind how far weve come and how many more headlines we have yet to get through a lot of people are also optimistic watching the vix drop it has dropped exactly in half since march 15th it was 86 on an intraday basis march 15th, you see it at 43 exactly a 50 drop thats making a lot more people a lot more optimistic. A lot more arguments that the markets are higher have been mitigated by the fact that weve just had such a big rally and its hard to push against this rally right now. Look at these stocks right here and how much they have moved since the market bottomed, the february 21st close, which is when things really started get getting bad. Walmarts up, verizon is only down 1 . Merck and 3m down a few percent. This is when things started getting really serious you see how much the ma