Guess the simplest question i can ask though his program because it is the topic of it should we trust the polls ok because we do have the the after effect of 2016 but i think a lot of people exaggerate how much the polls were off ok they were but i mean since 0 significant. Even if they had the same margin of error this time again a lot of the polls would say the outcome would be no different by the way so simple question then youre probably the ideal person to ask your digital person ok should we trust the polls. I trust the polls as a strong indicator of whats going on but we have to understand what they are saying and their limitations so 1st lets talk about what the polls are saying using 1016 as you mentioned as an example so in check out the 16 b. Average of said that hillary had about an 85 percent chance of winning. Well that means the polls were also saying that she had about an 85 percent chance of losing so if youre picturing hillary rolling the dice pollsters dont control
G. O. P. Strategist and in new york we cross to sarah norman she is a democratic strategist Digital Marketer and Data Scientist in the 2020 president ial election she served as these Senior Adviser of digital on the come on the Harris Campaign already crossed out rules and i think that means you can jump in anytime you want and i always appreciate it ok lets go to sarah sarahs that i guess the simplest question i can ask you is program because its the topic of it should we trust the polls ok because we do have the the after effect of 2016 but i think a lot of people exaggerate how much the polls were off ok they were but i mean since 0 significant. Even if they had the same margin of error this time again a lot of the polls would say the outcome would be no different by the way so simple question then youre probably the ideal person to ask your digital person ok should we trust the polls. I trust the polls as a strong and big. Later of whats going on but we have to understand what they
The after effect of 2016 but i think a lot of people exaggerate how much the polls were off ok they were but i mean since 0 significant. Even if they had the same margin of error this time again a lot of the polls would say the outcome would be no different by the way so simple question then youre probably the ideal person to ask your digital person ok should we trust the polls. I trust the polls as a strong indicator of whats going on but we have to understand what they are saying and their limitations so 1st lets talk about what the polls are saying using 1016 as you mentioned as an example so in chick out the 16 b. Average of said that hillary had about an 85 percent chance of winning well that means the coals were also saying that she had about an 85 percent chance of losing so if youre picturing hillary rolling the dice. Pollsters dont control it she rolls that one in 7 chance where she loses so thats what the polls are saying were talking about chances but we also have to conside
Talking about the normal limitation so every poll has a margin of error for a reason and we know that theres going to be groups that are under counted in 2016 it became notorious for undercount counting the impact of education levels this year we dont know what its going to be it could be women for example right now biden has a 26. 00 point lead among women so theres probably very few women for trump to grab so to speak but if women stay home they will be handing the election over to trump and then we will be saying that the polls got it wrong but whats special this year is the unique challenges to 2020 the polls dont account of correctly for Voter Suppression because we dont know how big the impact will be we do know one where people have access to voting its an advantage to democrats were less people back to voting its an adventure publicans but whats especially. Unique this year its the 1st time that we have an american president casting doubt on the Election Results before they eve
About chances but we also have to consider the polls limitations so in this year i think of it as 2 sets of limitations we have the normal limitations that happen every election cycle and then theres limitations that are special to 2021st talking about the normal limitation so every poll has a margin of error for a reason and we know that theres going to be groups that are under counted in 2016 it became notorious for undercount counting the impact of education levels this year we dont know what its going to be it could be women for example right now biden has a 26. 00 point lead among women so theres probably very few women for trump to grab so to speak but if women stay home they will be handing the election over to trump and then we will be saying that the polls got it wrong but what special they fear is the unique challenges to. 20 the polls dont account of correctly proposer suppression because we dont know how big the impact will be we do know one where people have access to voti