I think there was a lot of disruption in the rural disposable income on account of the disruption in jobs in the urban area on a post COVID basis. But I think with manufacturing picking up several of those jobs are coming back and those transfers from urban to rural India might be getting back.
And if you go back in history and see the longer-term trajectory of the market, it is very unnatural. I mean, typically through the noughties, which is 2000 to 2010 period, I mean we would see a 10% correction every quarter and every year we would see a correction closer to 20%.
Ashwini Agarwal says “booms and busts all produce extraordinary gains and extraordinary losses and this is part and parcel of it. I do not think it damages the underlying story for India or the global sentiment on India in any way. That is how I look at it. So it is not such a big deal in my personal opinion.”
Ashwini Agarwal of Demeter Advisors hopes for a more even recovery in the Indian economy, rather than just benefiting the rich. He expects the release of government capex to ease liquidity and boost consumption. He sees opportunities in attractive consumer staples stocks with benign raw material prices and constructive margin outlook.
“We are pretty much at a peak but this market cap to GDP is a misnomer in my view because large parts of the GDP are not listed. So, how do you correlate market cap to GDP? Our agriculture, which is a large part of the GDP, does not trade ; a large part of the SME sector does not trade; a large part of government services which make up the GDP do not trade.”