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Source: Saudi Aramco. This being said, Saudi Aramco decided on a 20-50 cents per barrel increase with its Asia-bound May 2021 prices. Interestingly, the heavier the grade the bigger was the month-on-month hike, with both Arab Heavy and Arab Medium witnessing 50-cent upward moves, fuelling speculation that spot trading will bring about deep discounts to the OSP. After a blatantly weak February (4.56mbpd), Saudi loadings en route to Asian customers remained tame in March 2021 at 4.58mbpd. Compared to January 2021 (5.36mbpd), Saudi exports to Asia have fallen by more than 10% over the course of past two months and the aggressive Saudi pricing might insinuate that this trend is here to stay further on. In contrast to Asia, Saudi Aramco’s OSPs for its Europe-bound cargoes in May were stagnant, Arab Light was the only grade not to be rolled over month-on-month, seeing a modest 20 cent per barrel decrease to -$2.40 per barrel against ICE Bwave.

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