Have you ever heard someone say “90% of people that trade options lose money.”? I certainly have. Looking at an options chain can be a dizzying exercise for the uninformed. Delta, Gamma, Theta, Rho, Vega – and let’s not forget – implied volatility? Single, spread, butterfly, condor. What does it all mean?
So what is an option from a high level view?
At the end of the day, an options contract is just a derivative like any other stock, bond, ETF, or other tradable security based on an underlying asset. Most people will look at these other forms of derivatives and have an understanding of why the price fluctuates. For example, if a company posts a strong earnings report and the price of the stock goes up, it is easy to understand what is going on. In the case of options contracts, however, things do get a bit more complicated. Let’s break things down a little bit to start to get an idea of why many investors are afraid to trade options.
In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals. Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently. This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.
The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase. We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100. If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak some
If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.
The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently. This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out. This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. You can read about our Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals and Metals Rally Early In 2021.