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In Part I of this research article, I tried to highlight the major market cycle phases that often drive volatility, uncertainty, and bigger trends in the US/Global markets as well as Precious Metals. Additionally, my team and I highlighted the technical confluence pattern that has setup as Gold prices have rallied above downward sloping price channels (price Flags) recently. This confluence of technical patterns, while we are transitioning into a post-COVID-19 global economy, suggests that excess credit/debt issues throughout the global financial markets are seeking safety in preparation for some type of market reversion event.
The recent move above $1900 in gold shows that precious metals are likely entering a new bullish price phase. We highlighted this in a May 3rd research article suggesting that a new advancing cycle phase may push Gold to levels above $2100. If our research is correct, Gold may continue to rally higher – reaching a peak some
Macro Tides Weekly Technical Review 15 March 2021
Before the end of the first quarter the financial markets are likely to be buffeted by several factors. The Federal Reserve meets on March 16 and March 17 and will provide its quarterly assessment of the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, with Chair Powell answering questions in the post FOMC meeting press conference. Pension funds will rebalance their portfolios to maintain their 60% / 40% allocation to equities and bonds.
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Many funds are likely to lower their allocation to equities and increase bond holdings after Treasury bonds fell in the first quarter while equities rose. The Treasury will distribute $410 billion of stimulus checks to individuals and families in the next few weeks and some portion of this money will find its way into stocks. The race between vaccinations and the COVID variants may also play a small role.