vote. and we have estimated that at the end of the day when all the votes in georgia are counted, that number is going to come down to 61%. we ve estimated that 61% of the overall vote will have been early vote, which we know broke records in georgia. but right now 99%. so look at the governor s race. it s a similar story. stacey abrams currently with 367,000 votes to brian kemp s 288,000 votes. again, this is 16% of the estimated vote that s in. but all of it nearly 99% is the pre-election vote, jake. it s the early vote. we think that is only going to make up 61% of the overall vote when it is fully tallied, which means a lot more election day vote is going to come in as a share of the vote, and that could of course benefit brian kemp, benefit herschel walker since republicans tend to show up in greater proportion on election day in person.
raphael warnock at 66%. herschel walker at 33%. you take a peek here at the governor s race. again stacey abrams about four points, shy of that, below, percentage points below, squund performing raphael warnock and you look at brian kemp at 37% right there, you come back to the senate race, herschel walker by shy of five points underperforming the republican governor. what you are looking for here is ticket splitting in the sense. we saw it in ohio. we projected mike dewine the republican governor winning. does he help j.d. vance? we will watch that play out in a number of states. senator warnock is ahead, at 36%, very important to note early in the night here. we have to keep counting. a quick look at some of the other senate races. in ohio again to see the percentage. tim ryan has run a very competitive race. he is not going to win with 57% of the vote. that tells you disproportionately early vote that we are looking at we are
raphael warnock has about, i believe, about 80,000 more votes than she does. meaning people are voting for raphael warnock, and then not voting for stacey abrams. right. some of those votes clearly going to the governor because we looked at fulton county. 43.4% for governor kemp. let s come to the senate race and you only see 39%. fulton county, you see herschel walker getting 23.3 just shy of 65,000 votes. again, this is overwhelmingly the biggest democratic area in the state. then you look at the governor s race and brian kemp is getting 28%. so you have an incumbent governor this is atlanta and the suburbs. you say fulton county, you see atlanta, you think it s just the city. it s the city and then the suburbs around it. there are a fair amount of republicans here, don t get me wrong, but it s the most overwhelmingly democratic county in the state. 16% with democrats leading in the governor s race, and democrats leading in the senate race. but it s only 16%. let s go to david
16 percentage points. that s notable because donald trump won florida in 2020 by 3.5 points. desantis of course widely speculated he may run for president. trump thinks so with some of his recent attacks on the florida governor who urearns a return tp to the governor s mansion in the sunshine state. also from ruby red alabama, a state that donald trump won earning about 60% of the vote in 2020 there incumbent republican kay ivey, a staunch trump supporter, beats jolanda flowers in alabama. we also have a key race alert now fthe peach state in georgia stacey abrams 44, just changed, 38,000 votes ahead of incumbent republican brian kemp. the lead thinning with the last update. 31% of the vote in in georgia. we will see where that winds up as the night moves along. let s take a step back and look at the big picture. states where polls closed but too early for cnn to make a
let s get some key race alerts beginning with the state of florida. last time we checked in the former republican governor, charlie crist had the lead. now it belongs to ron desantis. more than 285,000 votes ahead with 44% of the vote in, in florida. let s get an update now on the state of georgia. still very early but legendary vote mobilizer stacey abrams is ahead. 73,000 votes against incumbent republican brian kemp. only 13% of the vote in there. so we will likely watch that, potentially change throughout the night as we turn it over to kasie. i do want to start in georgia because we are starting to get some numbers where we can compare things a little bit. so let s take a look at this. raphael warnock sitting at 60.1%. look at that herschel walker number, 38.5%. that is different from the republican gubernatorial candidate brian kemp who sits at 42.6%. so, again, we want to check with john king on this.