Written by Steven HansenEconintersect s Economic Index forecast continues to see a recovery underway from the pandemic induced recession - although the recovery continues to be modest and the economy remains weak. We see a stronger economy in January. The coronavirus daily totals continue at, or nearly at, record territory - and any attempt to lockdown with a weak economy will trigger a double dip recession.
November 2020 Real Income and Expenditures Declined
The data continues to be affected by the pandemic. Expenditures declined month-over-month (and is in contraction year-over-year) whilst income also declined month-over-month (but is in expansion year-over-year).
Analyst Opinion of Personal Income and Expenditures
The note from the BEA says it all:
The November estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.