polls giquestionable. wall street journal and nbc in ohio had a 6-point lead for obama, but 9 points more democrats than republican, meaning the turnout for democrats would be more enthusiastic than 20 08. national poll, use the average of 10 polls, take all 22 polls as of midnight last night, romney leads in 12, obama leads in 4, tied in 6. romney is at or above 50% in 3 and in the average, 48.2 to 47.5, that s pretty darn close. but you get a sense underneath a strength for romney that might be expressed against an incumbent. an incumbent doesn t get much more than the final poll. i think both campaigns, what rick beeson said was correct, both campaigns believe they can get to over 300 because their models are so different. one will be right. one will be wrong.
of them showing the president leading. in the face of that, the sea of blue, why does the romney campaign see that they re going to win in the face of that. they re looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think that s at the real danger point. if you re at 49 or 50, that s a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. do you think that? i think there s a chance. i wouldn t be surprised. i think with my head, i look at all the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, and it s clear in the totality of the polling the president has the lead. i also know if that lead is at 47, 48, it s a race, anything could happen going into election day. this is as close a presidential campaign as we have seen. i just in terms of my feeling on it, i m a really bad
swing state polls overall, why does the romney campaign see that they re going to win even in the face of that? they re looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5%, 48.1%, 48.2%, in state after state. i think that s at the real danger point. if you re at 49d 49%, you re at 50%, that s a very different deal. the 47%, 48% number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. do you think that? i think there s a chance. i wouldn t be surprised. i think with my head, i look at all the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, and it s clear in the totality of the polling the president has the lead. i also know if that lead is at 47%, 48%, it s a race. anything could happen going into election day. this is as close a presidential came pain as we ve seen. i just in terms of my feeling on it, i m a really bad predictor, but i try to tell i m trying to figure out whether or not people are being hon
is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think that s at the real danger point. if you re at 49 or 50, that s a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. do you think that? i think there s a chance. i wouldn t be surprised. i think with my head, i look at all the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, and it s clear in the totality of the polling the president has the lead. i also know if that lead is at 47, 48, it s a race, anything could happen going into election day. this is as close a presidential campaign as we have seen. i just in terms of my feeling on it, i m a really bad predictor, but i try to tell i m trying to figure out whether or not people are being honest when they say they really think it s going to happen.
seeing the leaks about paul ryan s future in this we didn t want you, we want ed when you look at the swing state polls overall, why does the romney campaign see that they are going to win even in the face of that? they are looking at two things. they are looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. and i think that s at the real danger point. if you re at 49, you re at 50, it s a very different that s a very different deal. at that 47, 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. do you think that? i think there s a chance. i wouldn t be surprised. i think that with my head, i look at all of the polls, i look at the totality of the polls, it s clear that the president has a lead but i also know if that lead is at 47, 48, it s a race. anything can happen. this is as close a presidential campaign as we ve seen. [ female announcer ] he could be your soulm