coalition, each of the partners if he does get the liberals, they will have a pretty strong leg to stand on. also due to the election results which has both parties with some pretty strong results. on the other hand, armin laschet, the conservatives, the party of angela merkel, it seems for him, the air seems to be getting quite thin. there has been a lot of criticism and a poll showing a lot of germans do favor olaf scholz to become the next chancellor. isa? fred, keep us posted on those negotiation talks. appreciate it. thanks, fred. now let me get you a quick check of the global markets at this hour. we can bring out the board for us. as you can see there, red arrows right across the boards. ftse here in the uk, dax down 1%. the most so far in europe almost 4/10 of a percent. if i showuous us future ands what we can expect this tuesday, all three indices really down
a participation rate of 61.7% of those participating in the economy. that s up 1/10% from the month of june. it s okay, not great. average hourly earnings another thing i m focused on. we re worried about inflation. when will it when hit earnings that companies are forced to pay more for their talented employees? and that slows things down. average hourly earnings up 4/10% month over month. 4% year-over-year. employees are getting raises and they are making more money. that could be a negative for the federal reserve because it will push them to raise interest rates. then again we need the fed to get on a normalized schedule. we see an enormous amount of free money, all this stimulus has not been real, it s just coming from the federal reserve and government. those are two items i point out. something our audience might want the look at. bill: there is 20 plus
they had you know, that the republican gubernatorial candidate had run up four years ago. it was mainly those suburbs, those campbell and the suburbs up around cincinnati, wasn t it, that really changed? yeah, they did. i mean, look, when you have a democrat winning in kentucky and the margin is 4/10 of one point, it sort of ends up being a perfect storm and everything that needed to go right if the democrats went right for them. it was the first sign last night that bevin really was in trouble. if you look at a map of kentucky, the northern group of three counties that kind of juts out. cincinnati s on the other side of the ohio river. these are the cincinnati suburbs. in each one of those counties relative to what he did four years ago when he got elected governor, bevin was ten-plus points behind that pace, and he was also ten-plus points behind the pace that donald trump set when he won in 2016.
seen but we do see some deceleration and that s going to hopefully trump gets a china trade deal and now he s under pressure to review that and hopefully the fed eases, and however neil: well the expectations is they are going to do that. later this month, they meet again, and up until this week, fewer than 4/10 thought we would see a rate cut. now, it s almost up to 9/10. well it s 100% guarantee they are going to but the markets already done the job. the ten year is already down 1.5 % and that s what matters most. most important thing for me and i m kind of where i think a lot of the areas of the earth are already contracting, asia same thing. we re holding up pretty darn well compared to the rest and i just keep my fingers crossed that continues. we re just getting, if i only looked at the bond market i d think that we have, we would be in a depression right now but i think we re growing probably in the mid to high 1s which is not great, but
the board is off about 4/10 of a percent. 1130 points. 113 points. it s been steady all day. major indices doing the same thing across the board. one of the largest investment banks is getting bearish about the markets. morgan stanley said it s downgradi downgrading recommendations that fears on economic growth is going to offset support from central banks. chief asset strategist andrew sheets told clients that despite wall street s confidence that the federal reserve will ease interest rates as soon as later this month, investors haven t fully appreciated the odds of weakened economic growth in the months to come. they re not talking about a recession. they are talking about weaker economic growth, which is something that is being forecast. that wraps up the hour for me. i will be right back here tonight at 7:00 p.m. for hardball. then i ll be back here at 3:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. you can always find me on twitter, facebook, instagram,