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Calculated Risk: Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, New Home Sales

10yr yields hit the lowest levels in almost 2 weeks this morning . The low yields were less than 2bps away from Friday s lows and we only traded about a 2bp range on the day. MBS prices picked up almost an eighth of a point early in the day and were perfectly flat from there on out. [ 30 year fixed 3.14%] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. The consensus is for a 12.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for March. • Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for March 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

Robert Shiller: In Real Terms, Home Prices Have Never Been So High

by Tyler Durden Monday, May 24, 2021 - 07:30 PM In real terms, home prices have never been so high. My data goes back over 100 years, so this is something, Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC s Trading Nation.   Shiller is the co-founder of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. He is worried about a housing bubble forming where the Wild West mentality pushes prices higher. He also is concerned about stocks and cryptocurrencies.   I don t think that the whole thing is explained by central bank policy. There is something about the sociology of markets that are happening, he said.  Shiller has noticed that housing starts drive home prices. But last week, despite a shortage of homes and buildable property, home builders are easing production, paralyzed by surging commodity prices. 

German IFO survey builds up optimism for growth in Q2 and beyond

- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €1.7B vs. €1.0-2.0B indicated range in 2.75% Jan 2047 DSL bonds; Avg Yield: 0.406% v 0.067% prior. Looking Ahead - (IL) Israel Apr Leading S Indicator M/M: No est v 0.5% prior. - (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats. - 05:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills. - 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills. - 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 12-month Bulls. - 05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO). - 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR3.9B in 2030, 2032, and 2035 bonds. - 06:00 (UK) May CBI Retailing Reported Sales: 28e v 20 prior; Total Distribution Reported Sales: No est v 30 prior.

Wall Street Aims To Open Moderately Positive

Wall Street Aims To Open Moderately Positive Asian shares finished mixed, while European shares are trading down. Initials trends on the U.S. Futures Index suggest that Wall Street might open positive. As of 7.45 am ET, the Dow futures were adding 95.00 points, the S&P 500 futures were gaining 15.75 points and the Nasdaq 100 futures were adding 78.75 points. The U.S. major averages remained firmly positive at the close on Monday. The Dow climbed 186.14 points or 0.5 percent to 34,393.98, the Nasdaq surged up 190.18 points or 1.4 percent to 13,661.17 and the S&P 500 jumped 41.19 points or 1 percent to 4,197.05. On the economic front, the Redbook for the week will be published at 8.55 am ET. In the prior week, the Store sales were up 12.6 percent.

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