Silver Prices Break February Low - Does it Matter? Levels for XAG/USD
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Silver Price Outlook:
Despite the sharp uptick in global bond yields over the past week, silver prices have proven resilient.
The drop below the February low and quick return above henceforth suggests that demand for silver remains ample around key technical support.
Recent changes in sentimentsuggest that silver prices have a bearish bias in the near-term.
Silver Prices Weather Rising Yields
Like other precious metals, silver prices have been challenged in recent days by the rise in global bond yields, particularly US Treasury yields. Even as silver prices have dropped below the February low, the market is still proving rather resilient. The quick return back above the February low as well as key Fibonacci retracements suggests that underlying demand remains robust, even through the yield storm.
Monthly Forex Seasonality - March 2021: Dollars Mixed but Gold, Stocks Favor Weakness
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March FX Seasonality Overview:
In recent years, March has produced EUR/USD gains, losses by USD/JPY, gold, and stocks. It’s a mixed bag.
US Dollar seasonality (via-a-vis the DXY Index) has been negative over the past 5-years (-0.61%), but positive over the past 10-years (+0.09%).
Gold prices typically struggle in March, as evidenced by both the 5-year (-0.4%) and 10-year (-0.67%) performances.
The beginning of the month warrants a review of the seasonal patterns that have influenced forex markets over the past several years. For March, our focus is on the trailing 5-year and 10-year performances, both of which fully capture trading during the era of quantitative easing and expanding government deficits since the 2008/2009 Global Financial Crisis – not dissimilar from the environment we find ourselves in during the coronavirus pandemic recovery.
Weekly Technical US Dollar Forecast: Finally Turning Higher? Advertisement
Technical Forecast for the US Dollar: Neutral
The DXY Index has held onto key technical support, suggesting that bulls may have a bit more fight left yet.
Net-short US Dollar futures positioning has eased as the DXY Index has rallied, but has not shifted that significantly from levels seen going back to mid-December 2020.
The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests that the Euro, the largest component of the DXY Index, has a bearish bias in the near-term.
US Dollar Rates Week in Review
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) was having lackluster week until Thursday (even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified on Capitol Hill), when it seems the uptick in US Treasury yields finally spilled over to FX markets, lifting the greenback through Friday into the weekly close. The DXY Index rallied by +0.57%, its second best weekly performance year-to-date, just behind the second week of January (+0.70%).
Australian Dollar Forecast: Yield Spike Offers Reason for Pause - Setups in AUD/JPY, AUD/USD Advertisement
Australian Dollar Outlook:
After hitting fresh yearly highs earlier in the day, both AUD/JPY and AUD/USD rates have turned lower, with potential bearish topping candlesticks taking shape.
The spike in developed market sovereign bond yields, but US Treasury yields in particular, has spooked investors, offering a sober reason for a pause in the recent unbridled optimism.
According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, AUD/JPY has a bearish bias while AUD/USD has a bullish bias in the near-term.
Australian Dollar Follows Risk Down