0 of the captain if his crew is screaming at him and struggling with him that they don't want to be saved? because john boehner's crew, his republican caucus in congress increasingly does not want to be saved. they see no risk, why cut the rope when everything is going to be fine? >> this talk about default by the u.s. treasury is nonsense. we are not going to default on the public debt. >> republican congressman joe barton explaining that it is nonsense to worry about hitting the debt ceiling. republican congressman john flemming also does not think there is anything to worry about with the debt ceiling. he told the "new york times," quote, economists, what have they been doing? they make all sorts of predictions, many times they are wrong, so i don't think we should run government based on economist predictions. congressman john flemming says technically it is not possible to default. what happens in his mind if we do hit the debt celling? in his mind, quote, nothing happens, so says louisiana republican congressman john flemming. florida republican congressman ted yoho sprained to congress this week saying if we hit the debt ceiling, it would be good for us, good for the whole world even. he says i think we need to all have that moment where we think we are going broke. personally i think it would be stability to the world markets. we're not going to default, there is no default. republican congressman justin amash of michigan says, republicans have a different definition of default. nobody thinks we're going to default. and here's republican congressman steve king of iowa. >> i think that all this talk about a default has been a lot of demagoguery, a lot of false demagoguery. >> finding tape of that particular congressman saying stuff that sounds cuckoo is not about hunting for a white whale. it is demagoguery to worry about hitting the debt celling? this is increasingly becoming the new republican normal. that if we hit the debt ceiling for the first time in history, ah, no big deal, we have gills. >> there is no such thing as a debt ceiling in this country, i would dispel the rumor that is going around that you hear on every newscast that if we don't raise the debt ceiling we will default on our debt. we won't. >> we won't, why would we? senator r senator tom coburn is saying what is an increasingly normal thing for republicans say. from orrin hatch to rain paul to pat toomey have all said they think it is possible to hit the debt ceiling for the first time in history, it is possible for us to blow through it but avoid economic catastrophe anyway because we can skillfully -- there is no mechanism for doing that, the treasury department that would be responsible for doing it says that it cannot be done. even if it could be done, an estimate from deutsch bank analysts that was published by "the washington post" today projects that that idea, even if it were possible, even if it were true, they project that that idea would drop 1,500 points off the stock market right away. it would reduce the economic growth in this country by 4.12% and that's if the magic we won't default scheme is possible. which it probably isn't possible. but republican senator richard burr says getting upset about this is just scaring ourselves. it's one of the best things that could happen for young people. bloomberg news started off with a piece to convince republicans that the debt ceiling is a real thing. quote among the dozens of money managers economists, bankers traders and former government officials interviewed for this story few view this default as anything but a financial apocalypse. anybody who remembers the collapse of lehman brothers a little more than five years ago know what is a u.s. -- just weeks away if congress fails to raise the debt ceiling will be an economic calamity like the world has never seen. the shockwave that threw us into the greatest recession since the great depression that started with the collapse of lehman, started the first collapse of the debt tier of debt we would be talking about with the debt ceiling, just the first tier, what what would be directly affected. that first tier is 23 times the size of the bankruptcy and collapse of lehman. remember what the lehman collapse did? republicans in congress increasingly say they are not worried and that apparently is starting to worry the president of the united states. >> i want to talk about this for a minute because even though people can see and feel the effects of a government shutdown, they're already experiencing it right now, there are still some people out there who don't believe that default is a real thing and we have been hearing that from some republicans in congress that default would not be a big deal. so let me explain this, if congress refuses to raise what is called the debt ceiling, america would not be able to meet all of our financial obligations for the first time in 225 years. now the last time that the tea party republicans flirted with the idea of default two years ago, markets plunged, business and consumer confidence plunged. america's credit rating was downgraded for the first time. and a decision to actually go through with it, to actually permit default, according to many ceos and economists would be an i'm quoting here, insane, catastrophic, chaos, these are some of the more polite words. warren buffett likened default to a nuclear bomb, a weapon too horrible to use. nobody in the past has ever seriously threatened to breach the debt ceiling until the last two years. and this is the credit worthiness of the united states that we're talking about. this is our word, this is our good name. this is real. when i hear people trying to downplay the consequences of that, i think that's really irresponsible. and i'm happy to talk to any of them individually and walk them through exactly why it's irresponsible. >> if you stay tied to the harpoon rope while the harpooned whale is diving to the bottom of the sea, you will die at the bottom of the sea. republican members of congress are not convinced. the harpoon is set, the rope is tied on and it turns out next week the whale is diving and it's really deep water. republicans increasingly have decided not just that they don't want to cut that rope, but that they don't need to. if you are captain john boehner, holding the whale boat hatchet looking at that rope right now, what do you do? joining us us now is allan krueger, he's an economics professor, the former chief of economic advisors, thank you very much for being with us. >> my pleasure. >> i'm sorry i had to introduce you with a long story involving fishermen outfits and a whale. but the point we're trying to dramatize here is sort of denialism about the consequences of breaching the debt ceiling, do you think the denialists have a point? or do you think a breach of the debt ceiling would be catastrophic? >> this is reckless, mistakes happen, accidents happen. the closer we get, the more likely we are to have this kind of an accident. alexander hamilton must be rolling over in his grave right now. to think that you would threaten to default or to say we go over this debt limit, where the constitution says you shouldn't put the public debt in doubt, that they're playing this reckless, irresponsible game, and that they have done it before, it's not the first time, it's as the president said, it's irresponsible. >> if we did breach the debt ceiling, obviously we don't know how long it would last for or how quickly we would be able to respond to any shocks that it created in our economy or around the world. can you give us some sort of layman's terms any sense of the potential magnitude of the impact as compared to say what we went through in 2008 and 2009? >> well the potential is catastrophic. you know, if it goes -- if we go past october 17 for some length of time, it's going to lead to uncertainty about whether our obligations will be met, it will cause a very sharp contraction in the amount of money the money is paying out to private sector contractors or helping the defense to social security recipients and the contraction, some estimates i saw are as high as 16% for the quarter, which is, you know, about double the worst of the great recession. >> that's astonishing. we have heard that if congress doesn't allow the u.s. to pay its debts and if we do this, there will be the kinds of consequences that you just described and those numbers are almost impossible to get your head around. we just have never seen anything like that, not just in modern times, we have never seen anything like that as a country. as an economist, do you ever worry that predictions are so dire nobody can afford to belive that? catastrophic or apocalyptic that nobody can hear it and they turn to more comforting theories? >> you have to hope that cooler heads prevail. and what i worry about, what i described was just the effects of contraction because the government would be spending less. but you could find the financial markets all freeze up. you could have a run on money market funds. and the closer we get to that date, the more likely we run that risk. and if we stay over the debt ceiling for any length of time, i think we're going to see extremely adverse effects for the economy. >> the president today talked about why he does not think he should and maybe think he can act unilaterally to go around congress to raise the debt ceiling under his own authority as president. obviously that's a legal question, a constitutional question and in some cases, in some ways a political question. but as an economist, do you have a view on whether or not the president has that ability and whether or not it would actually save us from the worse consequences if we didn't do it? >> you know, i think most economists would agree that we would be better off without the debt ceiling. that's an example that alan greenspan took, the debt ceiling is an unnecessary con stranlt. orders the administration to collect a certain amount of revenue. that implies a certain amount of borrowing. so that's what determines the deficit, not the debt ceiling itself so that in my view and in the the view of most economists is an economic constraint. the president has said they have not been able to find a legal and responsible way to get around this constraint and that's going to be up to the lawyers and secretary lew and the president to decide what to do if we do pass this point, in my view this point of no return, they're faced with horrible options and look at all the uncertainty caused byer -- pay bond holders to some extent, foreign bondholders and then not pay federal contractors, not pay federal workers not pay disability insurance recipients, that will not go unchallenged. there will be a tremendous mess on our hands that would take some time to resolve and cause a financial collapse. >> i used to think that it would be a way out for the president to find some way to unilaterally do this. allan krueger, former chairman of president obama's economic counselors. it's nice to have you here. there were members of congress, congressmen and congresswomen who were arrested today. but not for any dereliction of duty. these particular congress people wanted to get arrested today in washington and it turns out to be kind of an amazing piece of tape and kind of an amazing story. i have to thank the whaling crew for having done that. thank you very much, ben, it was very good. asional have constipation, diarrhea, gas, bloating? 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